Citizens of Kolkata took to the streets demanding “no vote to BJP” before the 2021 Bengal Assembly election. It was one of the key reasons behind the magnificent victory of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress last year. But today, there is growing discontent among the civil society, urban voters and a section of minorities in Bengal. Giving electoral prominence to BJP turncoats like Babul Supriyo, walking a soft Hindutva line, growing violence against minorities and increasing corruption charges against the Mamata Banerjee government are among the several reasons for growing disenchantment.
Why BJP Turncoats Like Babul Supriyo Can Harm Mamata’s Image
The 2021 Bengal Assembly election was a highly polarised electoral battle. The Bharatiya Janata Party aggressively pushed its Hindutva agenda during the campaign. Before the 2021 elections, several TMC leaders joined the BJP. But after the BJP lost the election, many of them returned to the TMC fold again. The main problem here is earning the trust of people. For example, Babul Supriyo, a singer-turned-politician, was a BJP MP from Asansol. He was also a Union minister of state. However, after he was removed from the Cabinet, he quit the party. Supriyo also fought the 2021 Bengal Assembly elections on a BJP ticket from Tollygunge but lost. After the election, he joined the TMC and has now been fielded by Mamata Banerjee-led TMC to contest the Ballygunge Assembly bypoll.
The Ballygunge constituency has a significant Muslim population. When Supriyo was with the BJP, he had repeatedly attacked the minorities of Bengal and voiced strong support to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. Many political observers in Bengal believe that someone with such a past can tarnish Banerjee’s image because minorities in Bengal will not be able to trust a person like Supriyo.
Why Civil Society is Getting Uncomfortable With TMC
A significant section of tnhe civil society and urban voters have also become disenchanted with Mamata Banerjee. Before the 2021 Assembly election, this section had come together and raised the slogan “no vote to BJP”. Several analyses of the 2021 Bengal elections argued that a significant section of Left-leaning voters voted for Mamata Banerjee to check the rise of the BJP in Bengal. Several hardcore Left voters in Bengal had voted for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but a continuous movement by the civil society led to a shift.
Notably, the same civil society and urban voters also supported Mamata Banerjee and her stand against the CAA. Giving electoral prominence to Babul Supriyo has also irked this section because he was one of the most vocal critics of anti-CAA protests in Bengal. Today, this section is campaigning against Babul Supriyo.
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On the other hand, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is trying to woo the voters of the Ballygunge constituency by giving ticket to an anti-CAA activist. The CPM has fielded Shaira Shah Halim, a key figure in the anti-CAA protests. The party is eyeing its long-lost urban and Muslim voter base again.
Why Growing Violence in Bengal is Worrying Minorities
In the past several months, the violence in Bengal has increased significantly. A significant number of these outbreaks of violence have been against minorities. A month ago, an anti-CAA protester and student activist, Anish Khan, was allegedly killed by men in police uniform.
The TMC government did not show much empathy towards the family. However, the government formed an SIT to investigate the case. Moreover, after several days when Banerjee sent minister Firhad Hakim to visit the kin of the deceased, he taunted a section of the residents who blocked his visit through protests.
Within weeks of this incident, the horrific Rampurhat violence took place, where nine people were burned to death. All these families belonged to the minority community. Mamata Banerjee rushed to the spot and ordered the arrest of the TMC block committee president. However, eventually, the High Court transferred the case to the CBI.
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According to the family members of the victims and the neighbours, the TMC leaders and local administration are usually aware of such incidents. However, in the wake of such violence, the minorities in Bengal are feeling abandoned by the ruling party and the administration.
Significantly, in the past two weeks, the High Court has ordered CBI probe in three of the cases related to violence. This shows a degraded law and order situation in the state.
How Do Muslims in Bengal Vote?
In Bengal, Muslims account for 27.01 per cent of the state population. This section has been supporting the Trinamool Congress for the past several years. Earlier, for decades, the minorities of Bengal used to vote for the Left Front but the shift started in 2006. For the last more than 15 years, Muslims have been the key voter base of Mamata Banerjee, but today there is growing unease among them.
It is high time Mamata Banerjee introspects her decisions, like bringing turncoats into the party fold. Earlier, there was speculation that Banerjee won’t approve Ghar Wapsi of the TMC leaders from the BJP. However, the opposite happened. At every political meeting, the TMC leaders maintain that candidates do not matter because people vote for Mamata Banerjee. If this is true, it is the responsibility of the same TMC to uphold the image of Mamata Banerjee. With the growing violence, corruption and faulty political lines, Muslims and a section of civil society are increasingly getting disenchanted with Mamata Banerjee.
In the absence of a course correction, these voters will likely be split between the Congress and the CPM.
The author is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at Delhi Assembly Research Center. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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