The seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections is set to be the most crucial in Uttar Pradesh with 13 key constituencies up for grabs, including Varanasi from where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is contesting.
Political experts said the seventh phase on June 1, for which filing of nominations began on Tuesday (April 7), will be a test for NDA allies Apna Dal (S) and other influential OBC leaders. What makes this phase even more important for Uttar Pradesh is that the seventh phase will include chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s bastion of Gorakhpur, making the electoral battle all the more fierce.
“Out of all the seven phases, I believe the last phase will be the most interesting of all as the poll battle will be in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency Varanasi as well as UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s home turf Gorakhpur; other constituencies with recently inducted OBC leaders and BJP allies, including Apna Dal (S), will be put to the test,” said political analyst Shashikant Pandey from Dr Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University in Lucknow.
The 13 constituencies in seventh phase are Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria, Bansgaon (SC), Ghosi, Salempur, Ballia, Ghazipur, Chandauli, Varanasi, Mirzapur and Robertsganj (SC).
“In 2019, too, the fight on these seats was equally tough when it was a face-off between the BJP and ‘Mahagathbandhan’ – the grand alliance that included Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal. The Congress, however, preferred to go solo. Whereas in 2024, it is a face-off between BJP and INDIA bloc that includes the Congress and SP. The BSP preferred to go solo this time while the RLD is wielding considerable influence in several constituencies in western UP,” Pandey said.
In the previous election, the NDA clinched 11 out of 13 of these seats. The BJP won Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur, Ballia, Chandauli and Varanasi while its ally Apna Dal (S) were victorious in Mirzapur and Robertsganj. But the party, led by union minister Anupriya Patel and a long-time BJP ally, is yet to announce candidates on these two seats. Her husband Ashish Patel, who is a state cabinet minister and looks after the party affairs, said they will shortly make an announcement for Mirzapaur and Robertsganj.
This phase will be crucial for OBC leaders and NDA allies like Anupriya Patel, Om Prakash Rajbhar, Sanjay Nishad and Dara Singh Chauhan, as well as opposition leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya across the region. The challenge for the BJP is to reclaim the two seats it lost in 2019 while retaining others. The SP and Congress, meanwhile, face the challenge of opening their account in this region.
Varanasi is traditionally a BJP stronghold. Barring the 2004 general elections, when the Congress snatched this seat, Varanasi has always favoured the saffron party six times since 1996. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Prime Minister Modi secured a landslide victory in Varanasi obtaining 63 per cent of the total votes, while his closest competitor, Shalini Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, received 18.4 per cent.
Opting for Varanasi for the third consecutive election, the PM faces state Congress president Ajay Rai. This BJP’s track record underscores its hold in the region and presents a formidable challenge to the opposition alliance.
Gorakhpur, which is a stronghold of Yogi Adityanath, has also favoured the BJP. The chief minister has won the seat four consecutive times from 1999 to 2009. Before him, his mentor Mahant Avaidyanath – representing the Hindu Mahasabha – held the seat thrice. But, the BJP faced a setback in 2017 when it lost the seat to the SP in a bypoll after Adityanath became chief minister.
Despite this loss, the BJP maintains influence in Gorakhpur with its MLAs representing all five assembly segments. In the 2019 elections, Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan secured victory for the BJP, and he has been nominated once again to contest from the seat. This indicates the BJP’s determination to retain this prestigious seat and solidify its position in the region.
Other than this, the seventh phase will also test the influence of the Apna Dal (S). In the 2019 polls, the party won both Mirzapur and Robertsganj; its chief Anupriya Patel has twice emerged victorious from Mirzapur since 2014. She is likely to contest for the third time in this and faces competition from the SP’s Rajendtra S Bind and BSP’s Manish Tripathi.
Mirzapur holds a historical pattern of not re-electing candidates for a third consecutive term to the Lok Sabha, posing a challenge for Patel. Her aim to secure a hat-trick underscores the significance of this electoral battle while her candidacy represents the party’s continued presence and influence in the region.
Competition from other parties indicates the diverse political landscape of Mirzapur, but the upcoming election will determine if Patel can break the historical trend and maintain her hold on the constituency. Robertsganj, however, is dominated by SC and ST voters; here, the Apna Dal is yet to announce the candidate.
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