Srinagar: As many as 14.73 lakh voters will get to decide the fate of 182 candidates, including chief ministerial candidates of arch-rivals National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly Speaker and three ministers, who are in the fray in 18 constituencies in the fourth phase of the five phased Assembly elections on Sunday.
Performance of political parties in this phase is crucial as it will play a vital role in deciding their future and the structure of the new government in the state. For the ruling NC it is a do or die situation as this phase holds the key to its bid to retain the power in the state. Among the 28 seats NC won in 2008 Assembly elections, nine seats are going to polls in the fourth phase on Sunday. NC holds all eight seats of Srinagar district and Vijaypur seat in Samba district of Jammu region.
For Chief Minister and NC working president Omar Abdullah, who is struggling to cover the lost ground in Kashmir valley, this is perhaps the toughest battle of his life. It will be an uphill task for NC, which has governed Jammu and Kashmir - barring a few years - since the Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah accord in 1975, to maintain its political relevance in the state following strong anti-incumbency sentiments among the people against the state government.
Political experts believe that anti-incumbency sentiments are at a record high in the state, but it would not matter if the voter turnout is not high. "Unpopular decisions by the government during its six year term, which were later reversed after a total whitewash in Lok Sabha elections, could also play an important role in NC's political future. However, it will only come to play if people come out in large numbers to vote. The voting percentage in the first three phases was remarkable, but Srinagar district has a record of low voter turnout in the past," they say.
Omar, who decided to quit his family political bastion Ganderbal 'fearing a rout' from the seat, will contest from Sonawar constituency. However, sources in the NC say the party leadership is worried about the fate of Omar in Sonawar despite it being his home constituency because the people are angry with him as the local administration completely failed to tackle the situation during and after floods in the Valley.
The NC working president is up against BJP candidate Darakshan Andrabi, but many believe it is a straight contest between Omar and PDP candidate Ashraf Mir. Omar is also trying his luck from Beerwah, which went to polls in the third phase on December 9.
The performance of the NC in Sonawar constituency in the last Assembly elections wasn't reassuring either. In the Assembly election held in 2008, Omar's father Farooq Abdullah won Sonawar seat by just 94 votes. However, PDP's Sheikh Ghulam Qadir Pardesi, who came second in the Assembly polls in 2008, defected and joined the NC before by-elections which was held after Farooq resigned from the seat to contest Lok Sabha elections.
On the other hand, Opposition PDP patron and former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed is seeking re-election from Anantnag constituency in south Kashmir. Mufti is clearly way ahead in Anantnag as his main rival and senior NC leader Mehboob Beg withdrew from the contest and offered unconditional support to the PDP patron.
Even though PDP has been strong only in south and some pockets of north Kashmir valley, the party is seeking to change that by making a strong push in Srinagar, which is considered to be NC bastion.
Among the other ministers trying their luck in this phase is NC veteran and Rural Development Minister Ali Mohammad Sagar, who is seeking re-election for the sixth time from Khanyar constituency. Sagar is up against former trade union leader and PDP candidate Khursheed Alam. Despite the facts that Sagar has not lost this seat since 1983, it will be an uphill task for him to retain this seat this time following anger against NC government among the people.
The phase is also crucial for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is trying to make an inroad into Kashmir valley, as it can pave the way for the saffron party to accomplish its 'Mission 44-plus' - a feat that will enable it to form a government in India's only Muslim-majority state.
No Modi wave was visible during the Parliamentary elections in Kashmir as BJP candidates from Anantnag, Srinagar and Baramulla together got only 15845 votes in Lok Sabha elections while the party nominees got 15650 votes during 2008 Assembly elections. Modi's rally in Srinagar wasn't reassuring either for the saffron part, as only about 5 per cent of the people who participated in the event were from Srinagar.
But the BJP is eying votes of Kashmiri Pandits to bag three Assembly seats - Habbakadal, Amirakadal, Khanyar - in the fourth phase from the valley. The saffron party is hopeful that if the polling percentage of the Muslim voters is low in these areas following an election boycott call given by separatist leaders, Kashmiri Pandits can help in securing these seats for the saffron party.
BJP's candidates - three Kashmiri women and a local pandit - are trying hard to win in Srinagar constituencies, which in the past have responded positively to boycott call given by separatists. The BJP is also counting on Shia votebank to bag Zadibal constituency in Srinagar from where they have fielded Neelam Gash, who belongs to the Shia community.
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