Shivraj Singh Chouhan has cemented his position as chief minister in Madhya Pradesh and silenced his critics, the chair of CM Jai Ram Thakur in Himachal Pradesh is wobbly now after the big loss in party president JP Nadda’s home state, Mamata Banerjee is firmly on a BJP-demolition course in West Bengal, and Himanta Biswa Sarma has proved that the decision of the BJP to pick him as Assam CM was correct — these are the big messages from the 32 bypoll results on Tuesday.
Loss in den
For the BJP, the Himachal Pradesh results come as a warning signal before the state elections that are a year away. The general political wisdom gives the ruling party an edge in bypolls. But the Congress swept the three assembly seats as well as the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, which was narrowly won by Pratibha Singh, the wife of late former chief minister Virbhadra Singh. The loss will rankle as this is the home state of BJP chief Nadda and there is apparent anti-incumbency against CM Jai Ram Thakur whose name was earlier speculated as someone who could be dropped by the BJP ahead of the polls. Thakur now has his work cut out as there is also said to be sympathy amongst the people for Singh’s family after his death. The Congress also secured a 49% vote share in the bypolls.
‘Mama ji’ stays afloat
In Madhya Pradesh though, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has put all speculation to rest about his future with the BJP winning the Khandwa Lok Sabha seat and two out of the three assembly by-elections. Chouhan’s name was also speculated as someone who could be replaced amid the CM-changing spree of the BJP in Uttarakhand, Karnataka and Gujarat. However, the veteran chief minister seems to have answered his critics by putting all his might into the campaign of these bypolls and winning three seats. The Kamal Nath-led Congress, however, does not seem to be out of the game in Madhya Pradesh as it bagged one seat and the vote share difference between the parties was just 2%. The 2023 election may be another high-voltage contest between Chouhan and Nath.
The correct choices
Himanta Biswa Sarma and Ashok Gehlot seem to have proved to their respective parties that they were the correct choices as CMs. While the BJP alliance swept all five bypoll seats in Assam, the Congress won both by-election constituencies in Rajasthan and, in fact, pushed the floundering BJP in the state to the third spot on both the seats. The deeply divided BJP in Rajasthan was reduced to just 19% vote share in the elections, raising questions if the party has the leadership in place to challenge the Congress in 2023. In Assam, the Congress finds the shoe on the other foot as it was reduced to just 16% vote share in the bypolls, creating a buzz of implosion inside the party after the loss in the state. Sarma and Gehlot have clearly solidified their positions as CMs.
Mamata in command
The unceasing demolition of the BJP continues in West Bengal since the assembly election loss earlier this year. The opposition party lost all the four bypoll seats and, in fact, lost its deposits in three, securing just 14.5% votes in all while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) bagged nearly 75% votes. This comes as a body blow to the BJP since the earlier bypoll losses a month ago including in Bhabanipur won by Mamata and an exodus of leaders from the party to the TMC. The BJP is even staring at a possible erosion of the gains made in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it won 18 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, unless an urgent intervention is made by the top brass to rejuvenate the cadre here. With TMC’s citadel secured, Mamata Banerjee is now looking at other national frontiers.
Swim together or sink
The bypoll loss on both seats for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress in Bihar shows the parties need to stick together to take on the might of the ruling National Democratic Alliance. The Congress, which staked the future of the coalition with the RJD by insisting and contesting on two seats ultimately polled just 3% of the total votes, less than the new party of Chirag Paswan and about a percentage point more than NOTA. In the Tarapur seat, the winning margin for the ruling Janata Dal (United) over the RJD was 3,852 votes while the Congress secured 3,590 votes. In hindsight, the statement of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad that should these seats be left for the Congress “to lose deposits”, was proven correct. The loss, however, is expected to escalate the tensions with Lalu Prasad’s family with his elder son on the warpath.
Other key messages
The BJP would also feel the sting of the loss of the Hangal assembly seat to the Congress in Karnataka, which is the stronghold of new chief minister Basavaraj Bommai. The CM has said the loss is being taken very seriously, though the BJP won the other bypoll seat. In Haryana, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was able to retain the Ellenabad seat and the Congress finished third here behind the BJP and lost its deposit despite its vocal support to the ongoing farmer movement. In Telangana, the BJP sees a silver lining in the Huzurabad seat win over the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi while the Shiv Sena has reasons to feel enthused over winning its first Lok Sabha seat outside Maharashtra in Dadra and Nagar Haveli.
However, bypolls in the past have not proven to be the most accurate barometers of public mood ahead of state or general elections. The high petrol and diesel prices, for example, do not seem to have hurt the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, which has the costliest fuel in the country presently, while the issue seems to have bruised the party in Himachal Pradesh. Parties, though, do take quick lessons from bypolls, like the BJP amended its course after the shock Lok Sabha by-election losses in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in 2018 in Uttar Pradesh. In 2019, it won both seats and swept 65 out of the 80 seats in the state in the Lok Sabha elections despite a Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in UP.
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