It is finally the last round of a bloody, acerbic, raucous slugfest, in which the choicest of abuses were used to target the opponents. Over the last two months, villages and towns of Bihar witnessed scores of helicopters hovering in the sky carrying leaders to different constituencies even as at the ground level caste and community affiliations were being cemented.
Now, the battle is in the Mithilanchal-Kosi-Seemanchal belt of north and northeastern Bihar where over 1.5 crore electors are eligible to vote in 57 seats to decide the fate of 827 candidates including 58 women. This phase is also the biggest out of the five and is spread across the nine districts Madhubani, Darbhanga, Supual, Madhepura, Saharsa, Araria, Kisanganj, Purnea and Katihar.
The key to forming the next government is also in this region with the first four phases refusing to give much indication about which of the two major alliances - the Janata Dal United-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress Mahagathbandhan or the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance – is leading the race.
With a large concentration of Muslims, both the rivals tried to give some communal colour to the campaign. It all started with Prime Minister Narendra Modi trying to consolidate the Hindu vote by alleging that portion of the reservation for other backward castes, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes would be given away to the other community (Muslims) if the Mahagathbandhan wins. Further, fuel was added to it by BJP president Amit Shah who claimed that Pakistan will celebrate and burst crackers if NDA loses.
This was vehemently contested by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad who claimed that BJP is trying to give communal colour to the election campaign.
Muslims have a big presence in all the districts voting in the fifth phase. They are almost 40% in Purnea, 43% in Araria and 44.5% in Katihar. In the Kishanganj bordering Bangladesh they are an overwhelming 68%.
Traditionally, the BJP has done well in this region during Assembly elections but then it always fought with JDU, a strong regional party. In the 2010 elections it won 23 seats out of the 57 which will vote on November 5 while its then alliance partner JDU bagged 20. Lalu’s RJD was victorious in eight, Congress in three, Lok Janshakti Party in two and an independent candidate got one seat.
But things changed dramatically for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections as the Modi wave failed to make any impact in Seemanchal and the party lost in Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea and Katihar. It also failed to win Supual and Madhepura in the Kosi belt.
Among the major players, BJP is contesting in 38 seats while its alliance partners LJP, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) have put up candidates in 11, five and three constituencies respectively. On the other side, JDU candidates are fighting in 25 seats, RJD in 20 and Congress 12.
But there is the third factor, too, in this region in the form of Madhepura MP Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party (Loktantrik) which is contesting on 40 seats and the six candidates of Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which is making its debut in Bihar.
Pappu Yadav has represented different Lok Sabha seats from the region in the Lok Sabha on five occasions. He won the 2014 election on a RJD ticket but was later expelled from the party. He holds considerable clout in the region and has the potential to cause serious damage to the others in the fray. The NDA is hoping that he will split the Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank of Lalu and ensure Mahagathbandhan’s loss.
Though Owaisi had initially announced that his party would contest from 24 seats but poor response from the electorate forced him to put up just six candidates.
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