Opinion | In Diplomatic Deep Seas: Qatar and Bharat at Naval Crossroads

A case of espionage was alleged by Qatar last year with the arrest of eight naval veterans of Bharat, with not much divulged in the public domain by them or the Indian government. The matter would have been taken up through many channels, spearheaded by diplomatic channels, and the Government of Bharat was seized of the sensitivity of the case. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made a comment in the Parliament as well.

There was a meeting between top military officials of Pakistan and Qatar post the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, with Bharat making its stand clear in support of Israel, against the war on terror. Then came the recent disclosure of the eight veterans being awarded a ‘death sentence’ by the Court of First Instance of Qatar and that came as a ‘shock’ to the Government of Bharat, which in all sincerity, had pursued this case diplomatically thus far.

The Company in question is Oman-based Dahra Engineering & Security Services, which owned the now-defunct Dahra Global Technologies & Consultancy Services, where these veterans worked while being picked up for detention. Dahra Global was shut down in May this year and replaced by Advanced Services and Maintenance. These veterans were believed to have been overseeing the induction of Italian-made midget stealth submarines into the Qatari Navy. This company provided training and related services to Qatar’s Armed Forces. Most of the arrested persons were working for Dahra for four to six years. While the veterans were arrested and kept in solitary confinement in August 2022, the legal proceedings, as a trial in a court, began only in March 2023.

Plausible Allegation Scenarios: True, False or Fabricated

“Innocent until proven guilty” is an accepted legal adage universally but it loses its effect in some rather bullish world with medieval systems. This also seems to be the case today when Qatar has issued a death sentence to eight citizens of Bharat on charges of espionage and without due acceptable legal process and almost like a diktat after keeping them in confinement for a year, while the company they were working for has vanished without a trace and its Omani origin CEO is supposedly free on bail. Be that as it may, Bharat has to prepare to face three plausible scenarios.

Scenario 1: Allegations are True

This rather unlikely and currently absurd scenario is based on a premise that the allegations are indeed true and maybe all or some or one of the eight is guilty; knowingly or unknowingly, for committing a crime which may or may not have been intended, and maybe the disclosure through electronic devices was just common knowledge alone and maybe it was never shared with Israel too, but is enough to raise a suspicion on which the legal system of Qatar has encashed; with or, without interference from another foreign country; most likely Pakistan.

In such a scenario, when prima facie evidence is available with Qatar, the same should or, would have been shared with the Government of Bharat and then the only way to seek the return of these veterans would be through a ‘pardon’ by the Emir of Qatar and that would call for direct approach by the Government of Bharat under a veil of diplomacy but with a ‘bargaining edge’ with Qatar. The conditions of this bargain might not suit Bharat geopolitically or, economically but will assuage the concerns of families, forces, and the nation in general.

It will instill faith in growing good relations with Qatar and also showcase the might of Bharat; albeit without most knowing the price it might pay for this transaction. Another process would be to follow legal recourse and move this Appellate Court and Cassation Court in Qatar and file for ‘pardon’ as well. Yet another recourse is available through the International Court of Justice but that would make bilateral relations sordid and evidence against the veterans will be manipulated further to showcase them and Bharat in poor light.

Scenario 2: Allegations are False

This is a likely scenario but filled with its peculiar challenges. It implies that there are no charges and both governments are aware and yet this decision to award the death sentence has surfaced out of the blue; despite engagements at government levels through due diplomacy. This could then logically imply arm-twisting by Qatar; albeit for the geopolitical stances taken by Bharat and more recently for Israel and against terrorism imposed by Hamas. It could also be to restrain Bharat from designating Hamas as a terrorist organization, a request that has been made by Israel to Bharat just a couple of days before this sentencing in Qatar.

Qatar harbours Hamas terrorists and leadership on its soil and has been a key financer for Hamas, Pakistan in its endeavour to lead the Islamic Caliphate and other global Islamic organisations which tend to disrupt global peace. The growing trade and visualised economic corridors through other countries in the Middle East tend to reduce the self-importance of Qatar and this process has been on for more than a year and would have slightly irked Qatar and recent announcements at the G20 Summit in New Delhi is likely to have caused some anguish in Qatar; leading to Hamas attack on Israel, followed by high-level meeting between Pakistan and Qatar and then announcing of this death sentence.

The timing is discernable, and the intent is still ambiguous. Options for Bharat in such a scenario would be to ‘talk hard’ and seek full disclosure and opening of due legal options for the veterans. Some arm-twisting from the side of Bharat; especially on economic ties, putting Qatar equity investments on hold in Bharat and putting pressure through the US, UK and Germany would help a favourable response.

While the option to seek intervention from the International Court of Justice remains, it is still going to lead to an ugly situation which can be avoided. A direct approach by the Government of Bharat to the Government of Qatar will be better, while legal options as elucidated in the previous scenario should be exercised.

Scenario 3: Allegations are Fabricated

This is the most intriguing scenario, given the fact that there is much Pakistan ISI presence along with its diaspora in Qatar. This case surfaced around the same time the World Cup security was handed over to Pakistan and after a high-level meeting between the chief of staff of Qatar’s Armed Forces and Pakistan’s Army chief at Rawalpindi on October 12, 2023.

One can smell a rat that they discussed the Kulbhushan case and naval veterans case and drew in Israel too. If this scenario plays out, then it will have active involvement of Pakistan’s ISI, some of its diaspora in Qatar, planting of electronic evidence with maybe the help of China; dependent on the electronic gadgets used by these veterans and Qatar Sharia-like laws closing the loop. In such a scenario, much-fabricated evidence will be available and might close a few doors like legal recourse in Qatar and even the International Court of Justice. The only recourse would then be a direct intervention by our leaders, and for veterans to seek a ‘pardon’ and early return through this leadership call.

Points to Ponder Over as Citizen and Diaspora of Bharat

There is much angst amongst us, especially youth and military community that smells a rat and deeper conspiracy in this matter and while it may be true, there are related questions that might ease our minds to think rationally and prepare for eventualities including the worst; as in case of the Kulbhushan conspiracy by Pakistan.

1. How can sensitive and classified technical information be available with these members who are on third-party contracts and working in Qatar as employees of a foreign company? Does the Qatari Navy and/or Italian Manufacturing Company have officials who would sell such classified information? If so, what action has been taken against them?
2. What was the due diligence done on the company (Dahra Global) which seemingly doesn’t exist anymore and for which these veterans were working? Why was the company wound up? Was the company created to dupe these or, such veterans eventually as part of a larger conspiracy?
3. Why was the Omani-origin CEO of the company, Squadron Leader Khamis al-Ajmi, a retired officer of the Royal Omani Air Force let off rather soon in November 2022; allegedly on bail and without any public information leading to his initial arrest, details of release conditions and findings of the case against him and why he was free on bail with due legal recourses while his employees have been under prolonged detention and legal action?
4. Al Jazeera, the mouthpiece of the Qatar government hasn’t had a clue and has not aired much information either, while it was very proactive in furthering Hamas’ agenda and being Qatar’s loudspeaker during the ongoing Gaza-Israel Crisis. Is it because there is actually no case or, no evidence, as surely that would have been made known before such a one-sided decision to award a death sentence to apprise the world at large and Bharat in particular? Why has Qatar failed to use Al Jazeera for perception management on this matter which will eventually affect its economically diverse plans with Bharat?
5. Could it be a case of simple innocent sharing of photos etc which anyone else also had access to and later construing it deliberately as espionage? Could it be a Pakistani ISI-led conspiracy to frame veterans from Bharat as that also gives some credence to Pakistan’s illegal abduction of Kulbhushan Jadhav from Iran and later convicting him in their Military Courts; while relying on credible relations of Qatar with global powers and assurance they will not be intimidated directly?
6. Why would Israel, as being alleged beneficiary of this alleged espionage, need Indian veterans to spy on Italian military hardware in Qatar when that submarine is available in many countries and Israel has good military relations with Italy and has bilateral agreements for the acquisition and exchanges of military weapons and instruments too? Has there been any proven money trail from any Israeli agency to either these veterans or, their consulting company leading to Israel or, otherwise? In August 2023, Israel announced the induction of INS Drakon, an advanced submarine manufactured in Germany; an ally of Italy, by the end of this year. As a matter of fact, Italian state shipyard Fincantieri has made U212 NFS submarines with German Technology. How can Indians be spying on this submarine in Qatar for Israel when the technology partner for both Italy and Germany is the same?
7. The Ministry of External Affairs has been on this case since reported last year and Jaishankar has been on record on this matter in the Parliament. What has changed so suddenly for the Court of First Instance of Qatar to convict the veterans and hand over a death sentence? Did Bharat’s bold geopolitical moves and stand against Hamas lead to this, is it diplomatic arm-twisting alone for bargaining purposes on the recently announced Economic Corridor or, something at the behest of China and the connivance of Pakistan? Why such an ugly geopolitical messaging against Bharat without informing its government through diplomatic channels?
8. Is there a conspiracy within Bharat to belittle the government due to internal politics in an attempt to showcase the government poorly?
9. What if maybe just one veteran is remotely involved in the alleged espionage as per the law of Qatar? Why should all others be roped in collectively, while leaving their employer out on bail?
10. Much trade and prospective economic ties hinge between Bharat and Qatar to leverage it for the release of innocents in the case; especially in the scenario they are guilty. Should Bharat leverage itself in case the legal tide is against these veterans in this instance? Should Bharat compromise on its long-term national interests to save eight citizens? Should the government, for political gains, allude to some tough bargaining asked for by Qatar in return for these citizens?

Crystal Gazing: Discord and Beyond

An agreement signed by Bharat and Qatar in 2015 for the transfer of convicted prisoners so that they can complete their sentence in their home country also exists and that for now could be a via media to diffuse this suddenly-escalated diplomatic imbroglio that stares in the face of our G2G Connect that is robustly growing stronger with much opportunities for Foreign Direct Investment, collaborations, manufacturing and project development in defence, renewable energy, infrastructure and more.

Bharat and Qatar cannot let such infructuous allegations overlook the possibilities of a mutually beneficial future and partnership that beckons both nations. May our destinies allow the return of the naval veterans soon this time, as the non-disclosure of details by Qatar leaves much room to negotiate their release, without global embarrassment to either country.

While this storm might wean out sooner than later or, it may take its toll, there are lessons for Bharat to develop better intelligence, keep Middle Eastern countries under due surveillance and varied scanners, create structures that keep a check on our citizens working in these countries, leverage human resource with these countries, use geopolitical and economic market leverages to mitigate such drastic turns of illegal suffocation of citizens, and above all, have due legal shields for diaspora as a condition through bilateral agreements. Bharat should have the means and credibility to not succumb to any geopolitical blackmail and should be ready to take the hit if it comes to that, and in this particular case, the sacrifice of eight citizens must not deter it from taking a hard stand, keeping long-term national interests foremost, while considering all options.

One would render unsolicited advice to veterans and ex-employees of the Government of Bharat to not serve in such countries and companies that have chances to take coercive actions and misuse diplomatic leverage to falsely frame them under draconian laws and with impunity due to lack of due bilateral agreements for their safety and release. We have seen Kulbhushan’s case earlier where he was illegally taken from Iran; Iran being complicit by Pakistan and framed under Military Laws and even after the intervention of the International Court of Justice, they still held him as a criminal without evidence and against international conventions. Falsely framing Indian veterans is easy in the Middle East and could well be a deeper conspiracy. With Naval War Room leaks being exposed earlier, there is a case for us to also look critically within at such matters and not take situations at face value or, get swayed by emotions against facts; should that be the case here or, in the future.

In spite of the alleged laughable primary charge being to spy on a submarine being built for Qatar Navy by an Italian Shipyard Company, using German technology; a technology which is already at the disposal of Israel since much earlier and Germany has made submarines for Israel and also given that technology to Italy, this instant case might call for a prudent intervention by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani for a ‘pardon’ from Ruler of Qatar, without any favours attached. The case for spying for U212 NFS Submarine Technology doesn’t hold water anymore due to technology transfer between Germany and Italy and Germany also making submarines for Israel, and the visible opacity in divulgence of details of the case thus far by Qatar allows ample latitude to diplomatically negotiate and secure an early release of the veterans.

We pray for an early release of our veterans.

Colonel Rohit Dev, a 2nd Generation Army Officer, is an Adjunct Professor at the Rashtriya Raksha University, a Geo-political Analyst and a Primetime TV personality. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.