As the battle for Gujarat heats up and the stage gets set for the state elections, CNN-IBN-The Indian Express-Divya Bhaskar join hands to bring you an exclusive opinion poll from Gujarat.
Who will win the Battle For Gujarat? Can the incumbent Chief Minister Narendra Modi hold his own? Can the Congress make a comeback? Can Shankarsinh Vaghela mount a challenge? Is Keshubhai Patel a serious threat to Modi? And importantly, do the ghosts of Godhra still haunt Gujarat politics? These were among the many crucial questions posed to experts on a special per-poll verdict show, conducted by CNN-IBN Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai.
On the panel to debate and discuss the findings and the implications of the survey were Political Analyst, CSDS Yogendra Yadav; Union Minister in-charge of media for Gujarat Kapil Sibal; MP and BJP’s in-charge of Gujarat elections Arun Jaitley; BJP rebel BJP Gordhan Jadaphiya; senior editor, The Indian Express Varghese K George and CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor, Diptosh Majumdar.
Yogendra Yadav made the opening remarks on the show, sounding an ominous note for BJP.
“BJP is weakest in the largest parts of the state, both in Saurashtra and north Gujarat. There is a possibility that they might win fewer number of seats with huge margins in south and center but they might lose large number of seats with small margins. But at the moment, they are in lead,” said Yogendra Yadav.
Ghosts of Godhra
But Saurashtra remains just a sore exception for the party. Surveys conducted by the CSDS have shown that the BJP is still doing well in central Gujarat and that Godhra is a non-issue now.
BJP might win fewer number of seats with huge margins in south and center but they might lose large number of seats with small margins. But at the moment, they are in lead.- Yogendra Yadav, CSDS
Refuting the finding and rushing to the defence of Congress was Kapil Sibal. “Any poll conducted, say, a week ago does not reflect the real situation. People make up their mind only a week or so before the actual polling date. As far as Godhra is concerned, people don’t want to talk about it now because they know what the facts are. They know the face of Modi,” he said.
Caste and politics
But Saurashtra is one truth that the BJP can’t wish away and it could well be a region where the Keshubhai factor and caste combination could work against the party.
But Jaitley would have none of it. He defended the party and took a dig at the Congress. “Don’t forget that BJP has been in power in the state almost continuously since the early 90s. Don’t forget that since 1984, the Congress has not got a majority in Gujarat in the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections. Despite that, in all the four regions we have a lead. So I hope that’s a cause for worry for the Congress, not for us,” said Arun Jaitley.
Challenging Jaitley’s argument, Sibal said the same argument had been made in the India Shining campaign in 2004 that fell on its face and BJP lost the elections. “So good luck to Mr Jailtely,” he said.
Caste has always played a significant role in Gujarat elections. Figures now show that the upper caste space of the BJP is still with the party. Diptosh Majumdar analysed the situation, “The BJP has tried to bring together all the different groups. But the Kolis, the significant OBC seem to be moving away, who are settled along the coastal regions. The Patels, too, could be a problem area for the BJP.” The Kolis, incidentally form 18-24 per cent of Gujarat’s population.
So could the Congress be played the caste card in the state? “I doubt it because it could also fear a Patel backlash,” said Varghese K George.
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BJP rebel Gordhan Jadaphiya, at this point, put in that the Patel farmer is not too happy with Modi, though the polls indicate otherwise.
“The Patel factor is being overplayed. The real serious movement is Koli and what is called Kshatriya which is a strange alliance of upper caste and backward classes,” said Yogendra Yadav.
Favourite for Chief Minister
According to the survey, Modi, at the moment, has 40 per cent of the voters supporting him. So there really seems to be no other leader to take him on.
“If we assume that people want Modi to be CM again, how is it that in a place like Saurashtra, BJP has a lead of only one per cent? When people actually go to vote, they vote for the party and Modi’s leadership is highly questionable,” said Sibal.
But polls indicate that Modi also scores on other counts like being an effective leader, progress on Narmada among other things.
“Leadership is one of the things that matter in an election. That factor clearly goes in favour of Modi. But the trouble is if you are so important in an election, it could work as a disadvantage. The poll emphasizing his dictatorial ways could be a silent killer. Two things are silent killers in politics: If a leader is seen as dictatorial, like Indira Gandhi, Chautala; it’s a serious charge. The second is if the leader is seen as anti-poor. Both the factors can damage the government deeply.”
People have seen him (Modi) functioning as an honest leader, an effective decision maker, as a man who implements his decision and I think by and large Gujarat welcomes that.- Arun Jaitley, BJP
Modi ‘omnipotent’ in Gujarat
So is Narendra Modi larger than the party that Arun Jaitley represents and is he a part of the problem?
Jaitley said that the party is very large in Gujarat. “The party through the 90s and this decade has grown into a very large party considering that we have won election after elections. Even after the last Lok Sabha election we won 14 seats out of 20 seats,” said Jaitley.
However, all the senior leaders were unhappy with Modi including Kashiram Ranat, Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta. So wasn’t Modi becoming larger than the party?
Jaitley brought forth the point saying that in the last elections there was a strong favour for the BJP then Suresh Mehta couldn’t even retain his Assembly seat then. “You turn him as an important leader but he was in that kind of a pace. He was a Chief Minister but he couldn’t even retain his seat during the elections,” Jaitley said.
Jaitley once again reminded that Modi had grown had established himself well since the past five years as a leader.
“The last elections were not a ‘Modi’ election in that sense as it was influenced by the prevalent circumstances. People have seen him functioning as an honest leader, an effective decision maker, as a man who implements his decision and I think by and large Gujarat welcomes that,” said Jaitley.
However, does rebel BJP leader, Gordhan Zadaphia believe that Modi had increased the prestige of Gujarat? Was he upset because of the fact that Modi did not give his party the space that they wanted?
Zadaphia refuted the claim saying that he had been given a ministerial berth which he refused as he was more concerned more for the farmers and not for the industrialists.
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“I stand for the people of Gujarat and I want democracy first. Farmers must be satisfied,” said Zadaphia.
So was arrogance going to be Modi’s weak point and even prove to be his Achilles’ Heels or was he fit for the role of a larger than life leader that Gujarat wanted?
Majumdar said that Modi was a kind of personality who could not survive with a number of leaders. “He will survive with very stunted people. That is why others who had egos had to walk out of the party and that is why people like Zadaphia are shouting behind him,” said Majumdar.
So with Modi hailed to be an efficient leader did the figures say that the BJP did not look beyond Modi?
George said that the BJP was banking on Modi for its victory in Gujarat and Modi was also a dilemma for the party in many ways because if he won then he would create other problems for the BJP in national levels in politics in terms of alliance and leadership within the party,” said George.
So if Modi won the elections in Gujarat, would he become the next icon?
Modi will survive with very stunted people. That is why others who had egos had to walk out of the party and people like Zadaphia are shouting behind him.- Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN
Jaitley pointed out that Modi is already an effective central leader of BJP. He has been a General Secretary and an Organising Secretary of the party set up 10 years ago.
“He has worked his way up. He is now an effective Chief Minister for the last six terms and of he wins another term for six years and he has certainly established his credentials,” said Jaitley.
Questions could be asked about Modi but what about leaders like Shankar Singh Vaghela, former BJP member but with the party now, Bharat Singh Solanki who has not been empowered enough by the Congress so in leadership stakes Congress was a step behind?
Sibal said that leadership could be negative for Modi and not positive. “He promised water for the people of Saurashtra but the water never reached the people. People in the villages do not have electricity for hours. For the last many years in Gujarat there is no other face but Modi. He puts himself behind school bags and on textbooks. But that is not the truth about Modi. The truth is that he is going to lose,” said Sibal.
BJP figures declining
So did that prove that there was a tough fight building up In Gujarat?
Yadav said that the contest would be very close and the era in Gujarat when one party used to win with more than one percentage, which was what happened through out the 90s, was finally coming to an end.
“The era of dominance of the BJP where elections could be called even before nominations began seems to be coming to an end. The elections will be a closely fought elections,” said Yadav.
“BJP is ahead by five per cent. When we conducted an exactly same kind of pole in 2002 BJP was ahead by 15 percent but they have come down by 10 points now. And they might come even lower,” added Yadav.
So with the margins declining did it worry Jaitley?
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Jaitley said, “Each election has its own script. The 2002 elections were in a particular circumstance. But circumstances keep changing,” said Jaitley.
Sibal on the other hand reacting to the figures said that since BJP’s percentage had come down said that as the polling dates came nearer then the decline would be much swifter. “I bet on it that by December 11, they will be three points behind us,” said Sibal.
Majumdar added his own observation saying that it was a cause of worry for the BJP. “BJP has also changed the track of its campaign on development and on the eloquence of silence. Probably nobody recalls what happened after Godhra in Gujarat. But nobody says anything about it. The silence is one of the Hindutva plan,” said Majumdar.
So does the Congress have the power to capitalise on the weaknesses of the BJP?
George said that Congress has the organisation but it should be doing much better.
Sibal also added that for the first time in Gujarat all the Congress leaders were working together in a common platform in mush unity.
Modi scales popularity charts, BJP dips
Narendra Modi's popularity is way ahead of his rivals but that has opened an interesting paradox - the gap between the BJP and the Congress has narrowed.
I bet on it that by December 11, they (BJP) will be three points behind us.- Kapil Sibal, Congress
Figures show that after six years in power, 63 per cent people have declared themselves satisfied with Narendra Modi's government. Modi has again scored on most key parameters of development, namely electricity, roads and water, with over 50 per cent of those polled saying that conditions have improved.
Over 40 per cent of the respondents also added that the condition of schools and public transport have improved, as well.
On the flip-side, 39 per cent have complained of rising levels in corruption in the past few years while a majority of 60 per cent have declared themselves dissatisfied with the rising inflation.
Thirty per cent Muslim respondents also believe that the law and order situation has worsened in the state.
Though the positives show Modi's track record to be nothing short of impressive, Yogendra Yadav added a reminder: the faction that did not vote in the polls.
"Among the remaining (respondents) there are a large number of those who are not giving any opinion, so we are usually dealing here with 55 (per cent) versus 15 (per cent)," he explained.
But these figures and the popularity of the parties has almost resurrected the 2004 election: Atal Behari Vajpayee's popularity was soaring and the NDA government's track record was relatively good. However, the party lost the election.
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Jaitley did not find that a cause for worry and, instead, felt that the 2004 election taught everyone an essential point about Indian politics.
"There is no longer one national general elections; it's the net aggregate of some 27-28 different states," he said.
Jaitley added that a strong socio-political combination at the state level is what allows a party to win the national elections, giving the example of Gujarat.
"You have a performance of six years to back up, you have a leadership, you have an ideology, you have an organisational structure," he said.
What does that mean for the sitting candidates, then?
Jaitley insisted that the selection criteria calls for performance and winnability, adding that some of the candidates would certainly not be re-nominated. He added that there was a lot satisfaction with Modi in the state.
Goebbels-ian propaganda or reality?
Sibal refuted that claim. He spoke of what Modi's government had done to the farmers and spoke of differences between official estimates of the farmer suicides and the real numbers. Sibal also insisted that though there is a claim that the electricity situation in Gujarat has improved, "not a single Megawatt of power has been added in Gujarat since Narendra Modi came to power!"
Sibal scoffed at Modi and said, "Just as Narendra Modi has held himself out to be larger than life, so are his achievements larger than life."
Finally, is Gujarat ready for the battle?
George felt that the Congress should be optimistic, because as per the survey, the gap between the two parties since the last four assembly elections has narrowed to five from 10.
Majumdar said there is a lot more in the offing and Modi is not done yet.
"Either way you look at it, there is a problem for Modi. Basically, the numbers we are suggesting - as a politician, the kind of politician that he is, he can never be comfortable with. 100 means a lot of dissidents to deal with. Modi can't deal with that," he asserted.
Zadaphia opined Modi's rule won't last as it is nothing short of an autocracy.
Drawing a comparison of Modi with the British Raj, which had offered Indians a lot in terms of development, Zadaphia said that the erstwhile rulers had been kicked out because theirs was not the peoples' government.
But Jaitley was the last man laughing and was clearly satisfied with the current political scenario.
"I have a leader whose popularity is unmatched. I have a government against which there is no anti-incumbency. And I have an opponent who, in the last five years, has positioned itself as an anti-Gujarat party. And therefore the campaign thrust will see us expanding this difference," he said.
Sibal maintained that though Modi has five crorepatis supporting him he does not have 5 crore Gujarati people.
"I think the people of Gujarat have realised that," he said.
The election promises to be extremely fascinating, coming as it does in the backdrop of Godhra. But has Gujarat moved anyways beyond Godhra? Has it moved to a development-oriented election?
Yogendra Yadav was not certain about that but he agreed that the election is going to be perhaps the most interesting political event of 2007.
"What makes this election special and crucial is that Gujarat had shown the dark side of democracy," said Yadav, "and everyone in the world wanted to know - can democracy recover from that?"
Clearly, the end of 2007 promises a fascinating twist. December 23 will decide who wins the bet - Kapil Sibal or Arun Jaitley - and who wins Gujarat.
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