It would not be an overstatement to suggest that everyone in Maharashtra will be keenly watching the poll battle in the Chandrapur Lok Sabha constituency. Out of the 48 seats in the state, it is only one the Congress had managed to bag in the 2019 general elections, and the BJP is now resolved to wrest it away.
This constituency, in many ways, will be a litmus test of whether the caste arithmetic worked out by the Congress or the BJP’s chemistry with voters emerges on top. Chandrapur is spread over Chandrapur and Yavatmal districts. It will go to polls in the first phase of the general elections on April 19.
It has six assembly segments – Wani (BJP), Ami (BJP), Rajura (Congress), Chandrapur (Independent), Ballarpur (BJP) and Warora (BJP). The seat has been vacant since the death of its MP Suresh ‘Balu’ Dhanrokar in May 2023. The candidates contesting from this seat are Pratibha Dhanorkar of the Congress and Sudhir Mungantiwar of the BJP.
Located along the shores of two significant and often inundated rivers coursing through the region, the Chandrapur parliamentary constituency is renowned for its extensive reserves of coal and other minerals. Its rich history spans over 25,000 years, tracing back to the Stone Age. In Chandrapur district, the mercury often crosses 46 degrees Celsius in April-May.
Here are the key issues in Chandrapur Lok Sabha seat:
- Agrarian crises and lack of irrigation: In the Vidarbha region, where cotton and soybean are the primary crops, alongside the highest orange cultivation contributing up to 30 per cent of the country’s production, the financial struggles of small and marginal farmers have long been a pressing issue. Nearly six districts out of a total of 11 in Vidarbha have been classified as distress districts since 2004-05. This region, notorious for the highest number of farm suicides, witnessed a gradual decline in the influence of the Congress-NCP alliance from the mid-2000s. Chandrapur, which lies in Eastern Vidharba, is no exception. Add to that, farmers are also restless owing to repeated natural calamities affecting their crops and livelihood.
- Pollution: The proliferation of industries has led to pollution in Chandrapur, and this has become a major election issue for the people. Chandrapur is one of the most polluted cities in India. The city is an industrial area, home to cement, explosives, paper, and textile factories, in addition to mines. The Chandrapur Super Thermal Power Station, in particular, is facing several allegations of flouting environmental norms and of knowingly and willingly damaging its immediate environment. The BJP candidate from Chandrapur says the Congress did nothing about it and that he would work to resolve the pollution issue and make efforts for the overall development of the constituency.
- Unemployment and youth migration: Unemployment is another big issue this election season. The youth, in search of jobs, are leaving Chandrapur for greener pastures. This is not only having an impact on the psyche of the people, but could very well influence their voting choices too. The Maratha reservation politics that led to sharp polarisation between Marathas and OBCs is also bound to have some impact on elections this time around.
- Maratha pride: The Maha Vikas Aghadi is tying the BJP’s alleged role in breaking parties like the Shiv Sena and NCP into an issue of Maratha pride and prestige. The opposition has been heavily campaigning over the BJP’s supposed anti-Maharashtra stance. To counter this, the BJP has roped in Raj Thackeray in an attempt to calm tempers within the Maratha community. Ground inputs suggest that the issue has grabbed traction among voters.
What are the political dynamics?
For the BJP, the fight in Chandrapaur is a prestige issue. The party is leaving no stone unturned to flip the seat and break the Congress’s solitary pocket of influence in the Vidarbha region.
Importantly, the battle for Chandrapur is so important to the BJP because the Congress is hopeful of springing back to political relevance in the state by reviving its presence in the all-important Vidarbha region. The BJP has fielded senior leader Sudhir Mungantiwar from Chandrapur. A senior hand in Maharashtra and Vidarbha politics, he is the state forest minister.
Initially, Mungantiwar was hesitant about taking the Lok Sabha plunge because he felt he had more work to do in the state. But, realising the importance that the BJP’s top leadership attached to this seat, he seems to have completely invested himself in the fight for Chandrapur.
Mungantiwar is credited with arranging teakwood for the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya as well as the new parliament building. The BJP, before settling on his candidature, was contemplating fielding an outsider from Chandrapur.
The saffron party is hopeful that despite not having the caste arithmetic in Chandrapur on its side, the Modi factor and the party’s development plank will cut through caste and community lines, at least among the Hindus.
But, it is not like the BJP has abdicated the caste space entirely to the Congress. In January, for example, the Mahayuti government issued draft rules for expanding the scope of offering OBC certification to the Kunbi community, which is a pivotal vote bloc in Chandrapur.
This allows them to apply for government jobs and seats in educational institutions under the OBC category, which is entitled to 27 per cent reservation in Maharashtra. Having said that, there is also recognition of the fact that the state government acted largely under pressure from activist Manoj Jarange Patil.
The selection of Mungantiwar, however, has reportedly upset political heavyweight Hansraj Ahir, who has won Chandrapur four times. The BJP cannot afford to get caught up in internal tussles if it wants to snatch the seat from the Congress.
Just like wresting the seat from the Congress is a prestige battle for the BJP, for the Congress, the fight is about retaining the only seat it won in Maharashtra in the previous Lok Sabha elections. Chandrapur is seen by the Congress as its launchpad for regaining relevance across Vidarbha and, subsequently, across Maharashtra. If the Congress loses this seat, those plans would come undone.
Given the high-stakes battle that Chandrapur is witnessing, one would guess that the Congress would get its house in order and ensure that the local leadership is onboard with the choice of candidate that the party’s high command has selected. But, the Congress is shooting itself in the foot by not being able to put up a united fight against the BJP.
After much delay in announcing its candidate, the Congress settled for Pratibha Dhanorkar as its candidate. Dhanorkar is the widow of the late Suresh ‘Balu’ Dhanrokar, who clinched the only victory for the Congress in Maharashtra in 2019. She serves as a Congress MLA from Warora in the district and reportedly enjoys the backing of the state unit chief, Nana Patole.
Dhanorkar and the Congress can take solace in the fact that their attempts at whipping up the sympathy vote appears to be working, especially in the rural areas. The Congress is projecting her as the rightful heir of Chandrapur after her husband’s demise.
Dhanorkar, who is an OBC herself, also has the caste arithmetic working in her favour. Dalits and Muslims are said to be on the side of the Congress. Chandrapur is a Kunbi-dominated constituency where the community has a decisive say in who gets elected.
What makes Chandrapur so tough for the BJP is the fact that a significant chunk of the Kunbi vote could end up in the Congress kitty, which when combined with the Muslim and Dalit vote, sets the stage for the party’s victory.
Voter demographic
Total Voters: 19,68,436
SC Voters: 2,73,613 (13.9%)
ST Voters: 3,66,129 (18.6%)
Hindus: 80.75%
Muslims: 5.8%
Rural Voters: 11,86,967 (60.3%)
Urban Voters: 7,81,469 (39.7%)
Comments
0 comment