New Delhi: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's beleaguered ruling coalition battled on Sunday to secure numbers to remain in power, just a day before Parliament meets to decide the Government's fate over the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Both the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and a disparate Opposition were vigorously wooing still undecided independent MPs as well as small parties to reach the crucial figure of 272 in the 545-member Lok Sabha in which one seat is vacant and one MP is barred from voting.
Even as the UPA Government was seen anxiously firefighting through the weekend, experts debated the future of the ruling coalition and the prospect of early General Election if the Congress lost the trust vote.
On the panel of experts to discuss the issue were Congress and BJP Spokespersons Abhishek Manu Singhvi and Arun Jaitley along with rebel SP leader Shahid Siddiqui and CNN-IBN’s National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar.
Survival of the fittest
The contours of politics in this country have completely changed given the political realignments.
The debate began with the experts questioning should this confidence vote in Parliament be called the trust or the ‘mistrust’ vote because of the manner in which MPs have switched sides in the last 24 hours.
A week ago the Congress believed that it was going to get 280 plus votes but now the party is struggling to reach the halfway mark. Has the party grossly miscalculated and was the risk worth taking?
“We are still firm as we were that we will win this vote,” Abhishek Manu Singhvi said confidently.
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“Let us not get into the actual figure because it could well be over 280 as well. When we are convinced that we are on the right track and we will do the right thing,” he added.
The Congress is struggling but it appears that the Opposition is also not in a position to win this trust vote. It fact on Sunday it was witnessed that Mayawati and the Third Front emerged as the most powerful. So it seems both the UPA and the NDA are in a sense getting squeezed out.
Arun Jaitley said, “I don’t think that is a correct assessment. I think the PM and the UPA have lost the battle. Abhishek said his party is morally and ethically on the right track. But here we are talking about a PM who first broke an alliance, then deceived the Left and after that engineers defections. Stories are also doing the rounds that Congress is offering money to make MPs vote for them. And then they have the audacity to say they work on moral grounds. If I were a Congressman then I would hide my head in shame.”
Reacting sharply to Jaitley’s allegations, Singhvi said, “The country has to decide who is being audacious here. The PM himself asked for a trust vote even when there was no need for it. We know what Mr Jaitley’s party is doing to buy votes. The Congress has showed utmost propriety at each step.”
But hasn’t the BJP gone about the entire process of toppling the Government in a very disunited way? It seemed as if there wasn’t one voice coming out from the party. And that is the reason why UP Chief Minister Mayawati managed to take centrestage and hog the limelight.
Jaitley believed that was not a correct analysis because the “BJP will use all parliamentary tactic. Just because the Congress is going about engineering defection it doesn’t mean that we too will stoop to that level. If you can get MPs from the prison to vote then am sorry that is not our way to deal with issues.”
However, observers say that political leaders are focussing less and less on the Indo-US nuclear deal and decisions are being based on money.
“Well, ask those who started it. Who offered chief ministership to Shibu Soren?” asked Singhvi but refused to react when he was told that his party also offered deputy chief ministership to Soren’s younger son.
“Mr Soren’s party members have been with us for the last two days. We know how much of an attempt was made to break his party. Also, when Navjot Singh Sidhu was in jail it was fine for the NDA to make him vote but they have a problem if we do the same,” Singhvi said.
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The trust vote has become all about political survival based on local self interests. RLD chief Ajit Singh went with Mayawari because his interests in UP were with her. JDS chief Deve Gowda does not want to go with either the BJP or the Congress. But in this process the national parties are being squeezed.
“I think the Congress at this juncture has everything to lose because if it loses the vote then it goes out of power. Even if it succeeds in the vote it only manages to defer General Elections by 100 days. The kind of polarisation which is taking place in India with inflation at 12 per cent along with moral debasement brought to national politics – it is either way a lose-lose situation for the party,” Jaitley argued.
So will the UPA Government last with the kind of alliance that is now forging?
“It is the BJP who is breaking the national political scene. It is BJP that has told Mayawati that if she ever becomes the PM then she will be given outside support by the party,” Singhvi said.
But Jaitley said that the saffron party does not have an electoral alliance with Mayawati.
“Where is all this coming from? LK Advani is BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. There is no question of an alliance with Mayawati,” he confirmed.
With political loyalties switching in an election year, are we seeing a complete debasement of ideology and principles in politics?
“The Congress has created a situation where ideologies are changing hands, defections are being engineered, money is changing hands and criminals are being invited to vote. The Congress will pay for this debasement of politics,” Jaitley said.
Singhvi retorted by saying, “Whatever the BJP is accusing us actually applies to them. What they are accusing is what they themselves did in Karnataka to win polls.”
Maya magic
The 15th Lok Sabha is looking at Mayawati who seems to be the future for a large number of MPs. How far is the BJP threatened by her?
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“There is a political space that the NDA has in this country and that space is going to be expanded. If Mayawati’s power grows then she will eat into the space of the Congress party. And the Congress very soon will be pushed to a third front position,” Jaitley said.
However, Singhvi warned, “The NDA should be a worried lot today because the BJP is undermining itself by propping Mayawati in such an opportunistic manner.”
But Jaitley retorted, “Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi have brought a new low to Indian politics. The only way to save it is by bringing the people of India to vote UPA out and so the solution is an early election.”
Politics of convenience
Till the other day, Shahid Siddiqui was critical of Mayawati and her political ideology but suddenly he’s embracing her principles.
Now Siddiqui defends the UP Chief Minister and says she is the only leader who has emerged in Indian politics on her own. “Today you see that the emerging faces in Indian politics are either sons or daughters of various politicians. But Mayawati is a social engineer who is transforming society.”
When asked if Mayawati was a magnet for disgruntled forces in politics and for people who feel left out, Siddiqui replied, “She is the only leader who has transferable votes. Even Sonia Gandhi does not have transferable vote for her own party. So you see, Mayawati brings value addition for her all those who join her.”
But the fact remains that the MPs who are joining her are people who basically might not get tickets for the next elections. Given the nature of the disparate forces that are coming to join Mayawati, will this combination last?
Siddiqui replied that today if Ajit Singh, Deve Gowda and Chandrababu Naidu are joining Mayawati and saying that she will be the next prime minister then they realise that the move will help them woo Dalit votes in their own states.
“I have known Kansi Ramji and Mayawatiji for the last 20 years. I have been critical of them as the General Secretary of the Samajwadi Party but I have known them as the editor of Nai Duniya and have interviewed them more than a dozen times. I have seen her emerging as a simple leader to someone who was given the responsibility of UP by Kansi Ram ji,” he added.
Darwinian politics
Till 48 hours ago Siddiqui supported the nuclear deal but now he’s against it. When asked if he was merely a typical politician who bent in the direction of the wind, Siddiqui said, “My leaders were abusing Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi and Congress was abusing them so that is how politics goes. Things change and people change.”
Are the politicians who are changing their stand at this point of time are looking at General Elections 2008-2009? But is it about money or simply about their political survival?
Wrapping up the debate Diptosh Majumdar said that in India politicians never give up their careers.
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“There can be a lot of money involved but in the end it can always be balanced with political future. For example, Shibu Soren will look at deputy chief ministership and cabinet berth apart from his role in Jharkhand other than money. So this trust vote is about balancing money with political future,” Majumdar said.
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