New Delhi: If the results of almost all the exit polls get replicated on Tuesday as well when counting for Delhi Assembly elections takes place, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will form government in the national capital. But the BJP can draw solace from the fact that several exit polls have been way off the mark in the previous elections. In that case, the BJP will bounce back and prove poll pundits wrong. In a third scenario, which is also very much possible, Delhi may even see a repeat of hung Assembly.
In the event of AAP getting a majority, the party, which is a product of Anna Hazare-led India Against Corruption's (IAC) movement, will get a new lease of life. Ever since Arvind Kejriwal resigned as chief minister of the 49-day AAP government about a year ago, the party has constantly witnessed a downward slide.
AAP's decision to contest the 2014 Lok Sabha elections also boomeranged with all its senior leaders like Kejriwal and Kumar Vishwas losing miserably to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi in Amethi respectively.
With the party having abdicated power in Delhi and faring badly in the Lok Sabha polls, winning just four seats and all of them in Punjab, the party witnessed fierce infighting. Its senior leader Shazia Ilmi quit the party and joined the BJP just before Delhi Assembly elections. Shanti Bhushan, one of the original members of the IAC, questioned Kejriwal's competence as a CM candidate. His son and senior lawyer Prashant Bhushan too raised a pointing finger at the selection process of candidates for the February 7 Assembly elections.
AAP will not only be able to keep its flock together if it comes to power but also be infused with some fresh blood, rejuvenating the party.
After coming to power, AAP's next target is likely to be the Bihar Assembly elections scheduled to be held in October or November. By remaining in power, the party will hope to emerge as a force to reckon with.
But a major challenge before the party will be to fulfil the promises made in its manifesto like passing the Jan Lokpal Bill within 15 days of coming to power, making Delhi a free Wifi zone, opening 20 colleges and reducing electricity and water tariffs.
The most important promise which Kejriwal will have to keep will be to not quit power in any circumstances. He will also have to not indulge in dharnas.
However, even if AAP loses, it is likely to remain the main opposition party and a force to reckon with. It will still have an opportunity to learn governance by being in the Opposition and wait till the next election.
As far as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is concerned, winning Delhi will be a major feather in its cap. It will be the fifth state in a row after the Lok Sabha elections where the party would do something remarkable - having won by majority in Haryana, installing its chief ministers in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and for the first time becoming the second largest party in Jammu and Kashmir.
Winning Delhi will make it easier for the BJP to come to power in Bihar where the ruling Janata Dal United is in a disarray with Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi defying his party leadership and challenging his predecessor Nitish Kumar.
Most importantly, with a victory in Delhi, the grip of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah over the party will grow stronger. It will also be easy for the Centre to get its policies implemented in the national capital.
But a defeat will not only stop the winning juggernaut of Modi-Shah combine but also lead rivals within the party and the RSS to throw barbs at the duo. They will also be criticised for inducting India's first woman IPS officer Kiran Bedi into the party a few days before the elections and projecting her as the chief ministerial candidate.
In the worst scenario, Delhi may even witness a hung Assembly as it did in the 2013 elections. This would be the most unfortunate development for the people of national capital. Delhi may either face another spell of President's Rule, giving the BJP a chance to govern by proxy or it may again see two parties coming together to rule, without a guarantee of stability.
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