Though India’s Q4 GDP growth is the lowest in the past 4 quarters, they have still surpassed all analysts’ expectations by touching 7.8 per cent. Analysts had expected a slower GDP growth of 5.9 per cent-6.7 per cent for Q4 FY24. For full 2023-24, India’s GDP growth rate stood at 8.2 per cent as against 7 per cent in FY23. Here’s how economists and experts react to the latest GDP numbers.
Sanjeev Agrawal, president of PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry:
The overall real GDP growth at 8.2% in 2023-24 is highest among the leading advanced, emerging economies.
India’s economy is becoming more and more robust as growth is strengthening quarter after quarter; the Q4 growth at 7.8% indicates a strong growth trajectory to continue in the coming quarters too.
Manufacturing, construction and electricity sectors have become the major growth drivers in the recent quarters.
India’s growth at 8.2% in FY 2023-24 is a reflection of the efforts for Viksit Bharat by 2047; the growth momentum is expected to continue and strengthen in the coming times.
Despite deepening geopolitical distress and global macroeconomic headwinds, India remains resilient. India has become a growth leader among the major advanced, emerging and developing countries.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head (research and outreach) at ICRA:
While the growth in India’s GDP and GVA moderated to a four-quarter low of 7.8% and 6.3%, respectively, in Q4 FY2024 from the revised prints of 8.6% and 6.8% in Q3, it exceeded both our and market expectations. The wedge between the two narrowed only slightly to 148 bps from 178 bps in Q3, amid the high 22.2% growth in net indirect taxes in real terms.
With such a high growth of net indirect taxes unlikely to sustain in FY2025, we expect GDP and GVA growth to print closer to each other, especially in terms of the annual numbers.
The sequential deceleration in GVA growth was largely driven by the industrial sector, reflecting both a moderation in volume growth as well as the narrowing deflation in industrial raw material inputs in Q4 FY2024 vis-à-vis Q3. Nevertheless, the expansion in manufacturing and construction remained quite robust, printing at above 8.0% in the quarter, Nayar said.
Sujan Hajra, chief economist and executive director of Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers:
India’s GDP growth for the full year 2023-24 and the January-March 2024 quarter exceeded both our expectations and the consensus forecast.
This robust performance was driven by continued strong investment and subdued private consumption growth, alongside a significant contribution from discrepancies—the unexplained component of GDP. These discrepancies also explain the notable divergence between GDP and GVA growth.
With robust growth and declining inflation, the Indian economy is in an enviable position, poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
Anshuman Magazine, chairman and CEO (India, South-East Asia, Middle East & Africa) of CBRE:
This impressive growth, fuelled by increased infrastructure spending and strong consumer optimism, expanding services PMI and higher tax collections, bolstered India’s economic momentum despite global headwinds.
Additionally, manufacturing activities have remained strong. The economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by several positive indicators.
The government’s commitment to fiscal discipline and RBI’s prudent monetary policy have created a strong foundation for sustained economic expansion. Looking ahead, economic prospects appear bright with improvements in consumption and infrastructure, and a normal monsoon is expected to enhance growth prospects further.
Ranen Banerjee, partner and leader of economic advisory at PwC India:
The GDP estimates have come in as per expectations. The 8.2% growth estimate for the full FY23-24 is significant as it is above the psychological mark of 8% that should boost business sentiments.
The GDP numbers have been buoyed by a strong print in manufacturing supported by a low base given the negative growth printed in previous year. Mining and Quarrying has also helped the higher print. However, all other sectors have printed a decline over previous year and the low prints in agriculture and services are areas of concern.
Despite the high base set by unexpectedly strong growth in FY24, we anticipate India will achieve close to 7% growth in FY25, thanks to sustained economic momentum. This year, we expect a meaningful pickup in private consumption and a possible modest deceleration in investment growth.
D K Srivastava, chief policy advisor at EY India:
Driven by buoyant Q4 growth in manufacturing, construction, public administration and defence services and financial and real estate services the full year FY24 real GDP growth is at 8.2 per cent exceeding the expectations of both domestic and multilateral institutions. While private final consumption expenditure growth is still languishing at 4 per cent, the main demand side push is coming from gross fixed capital formation which has grown at 9 per cent.
GDP In Previous Quarters
India’s economy had grown 8.4 per cent in the preceding October-December 2023 quarter (Q3 FY24). In the previous quarters, the Indian economy had grown 8.2 per cent in the June 2023 quarter (Q1 FY24), and 8.1 per cent in the following September quarter (Q2 FY24).
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