New Delhi: After the hype and frenzy over Tata Nano, now the dampener.
Tata Motors' Rs 1 lakh car is seen to be creating such a huge demand that experts feel the waiting period for a Nano may go up to at least one year when it actually hits the market in September 2008.
Car buyers in India had experienced long waiting period situations in the '70s and '80s when money couldn't get you a car without a waiting period, which ranged from a few months to a few years depending on the model and one's influence. In fact, in the '70s, the waiting period for a car used to be as much as three to five years.
In the case of Tata Nano, the situation may not be as bad. But still, the waiting period is expected to range from a few months in big cities to one year in smaller towns. The booking for the car is set to open in June.
The car, which was unveiled amid much hype at the Delhi Auto Expo last week, is expected to generate demand for at least 3.5 lakh unit vehicles a year against Tatas' targeted initial production rate of 250,000 units.
Maruti's popular car, Alto's current sales stand at around 2.5 lakh units a year while Maruti 800 sells about 80,000 units a year. There are around 1.5 million light vehicle owners in the country at present.
Tata Motors had initially planned to roll out the Nano from its Singur plant, where over 35 vendors have already set up base in the tax-free zone. In spite of the ongoing turmoil on the site, if car production goes ahead as planned, Tata might be able to meet the market demand with shorter time lag.
However, if there are disruptions, things might go topsy-turvy with a huge demand-supply imbalance. Reports suggest that the Tatas are already reworking its plan on Nano production and there is a possibility that the production base will be shifted to Pantnagar in Uttarakhand.
Renowned automobile journalist Murad Ali Baig agrees "there will be a long queue for Nano".
"Ratan Tata has already announced that the car will hit the road at the end of the year. So, there should not be a very long waiting period. But yes, there will be some time lag as the demand will be very high," he says.
Murad predicts Nano sales to touch 1 million units in five years. He also claims that Nano will definitely be rolled out from the Singur plant only as this base provides a huge tax benefit.
Market observers anticipate a very rapid growth rate in sales once Nano hits the road. So much so, that a Crisil study has projected the Tata Motors' light vehicle sales to hit 12 lakh units in five years, out of which Nano alone would contribute more than 60 per cent.
According to the Crisil research, the cheapest car in the world will increase the number of Indian families who can afford a car by as much as 65 per cent as the cost of ownership will come down by 30 per cent at its expected consumer price of around Rs 1.3 lakh.
"The ultra low-cost vehicles will bring in a number of new buyers to the market as it will be affordable to families with income level of Rs 2 lakh," Crisil says.
At this significantly redefined threshold for car ownership in India, the annual car sales in India too is estimated to shoot up by about 20 per cent over the annual sales expected in 2007-08, the study reveals. German research firm CSM World Wide, too, projects Nano sales to touch six lakh units per annum by 2013.
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