Throne for Mamata, Pick-Me-Up for BJP, Vindication for EC: Little Something for All in Bhabanipur

It was expected. People and political watchers were only discussing the margin that Didi might register. Now it is known to all that Mamata Banerjee has won the Bhabanipur by-election by the highest-ever margin since 2011. So another massive win by Mamata, another show of strength by the Trinamool Congress. Ministers, MPs, MLAs, and finally lakhs of party workers, are visibly relieved after the much-talked-about embarrassment in Nandigram.

The BJP did its best, putting up a spirited fight against the mighty Mamata. Even though the inference was drawn by the BJP, no one in the party would dream of an April repeat and creating history. Yes, the perspective and ground reality in Nandigram was different. There the party had the ground connect and organisational skills of Suvendu Adhikari to bank on.

A quick look at the statistics in Bhabanipur makes it easier to understand why Nandigram was rather a risky gamble for Mamata.

Bhabanipur has been a TMC bastion ever since 2011. It won this seat in the historic 2011 Assembly elections when Mamata dethroned the Left. Mamata won the subsequent by-election too. She got another comfortable victory from Bhabanipur in 2016. In 2015 Kolkata Municipal elections, the TMC won seven wards in Bhabanipur, whereas the BJP could only manage to pull through in ward number 70.

But BJP councilor Asim Basu switched over to the TMC camp later on. It was a challenge for all these councilors to ensure a massive victory for the party supremo as anything contrary would have cost them their seats in the corporation elections. It was a major challenge for cabinet minister Firhad Hakim, too, as he was eager to retain the coveted post of Kolkata Mayor.

A united Trinamool made sure that the party’s loyal voters came out and reached the polling booths. This is why ward 77 witnessed maximum voter turnout. TMC workers also ensured maximum voter turnout from slums across the assembly constituency where people have been loyal to the party for numerous social schemes floated by the Mamata government.

In contrast, voter turnout was visibly thin from three wards — 63,70 and 74 – that have a large chunk of non-Bengali voters, a bloc the BJP was banking on. It is difficult to analyse this low turnout. What played spoilsport — voter apathy or bad weather?

The BJP blames it on alleged voter intimidation and “fake voting”. In a post-result press release, the party said: “Violence was perpetrated upon BJP workers by TMC cadres with support of TMC ministers, who were openly intimidating common people from coming out to vote. Sadly, the Election Commission did nothing to allay the fears of voters. The polls, particularly in Bhabanipur, were marred by rampant fake voting.”

The TMC has refuted the BJP’s allegations, while the Election Commission too denied alleged incidents of “fake voting”.

Ultimately, the arithmetic clicked in favour of the TMC, but the BJP hasn’t been left empty-handed either. Even though the state BJP leadership was against holding the by-election citing the pandemic as an excuse, party bosses in Delhi maintained strategic silence. BJP insiders in Delhi say the party, in fact, wanted to get more politically active in the state to boost morale following the embarrassing defeat in Assembly elections and alleged post-poll violence.

BJP leaders in Delhi realised that unless they hit the streets, it would be difficult to re-energise the ground force before next year’s municipal elections and Panchayat elections due in 2023, that in turn would be a prelude to the 2024 general elections.

Rather than risk pitting a heavyweight against Mamata, the BJP chose to gamble on Priyanka Tibrewal whose fierce legal battle in the High Court ensured a CBI enquiry order into the alleged post-poll violence. Through Tibrewal, the BJP wanted to keep the post-poll violence afresh in voter memory throughout the campaign.

In its press release, too, the Bengal BJP said: “The elections were held under an overbearing state administration, with dark shadow of fear, intimidation and gloom of the post-poll violence hanging over the electorate.”

It was no surprise when newly appointed state president Sukanta Majumdar, said in a rally: “It was no post-poll violence. It was state-sponsored targeted killing of a particular community.”

The BJP fielded central ministers Smriti Irani and Hardeep Sing Puri for campaigning in Bhabanipur; Manoj Tiwari and Sambit Patra were also brought in to woo non-Bengali voters. The BJP may have lost the election, but it has succeeded in conveying to the public that it stands as the sole credible opposition to the TMC.

The last major stakeholder in the by-election was the Election Commission. It had come under fire in the run-up to the 2021 Assembly elections over its decision to hold the polls in eight phases in the midst of a pandemic. The TMC dragged the EC to the dock over all its decisions, including the one on CRPF deployment to escort state officials.

The onus was on the EC this time to prove the TMC wrong. It surprised all stakeholder by announcing the Bhabhanipur election schedule when it seemed that the pandemic would not permit one and that Mamata would have to give up the CM’s chair since she couldn’t be elected to the House within six months of taking oath.

It was the BJP this time that accused the EC of siding with Mamata. Speaking to News18, state BJP vice-president and Barrackpore MP Arjun Singh said the poll panel has “completely failed” in its duty to hold fair elections. “There was rampant rigging and booth capturing, but surprisingly the Election Commission closed its eyes and ears. False voters were caught on camera but despite giving a written complaint, no action was taken. We are surprised with the stand of the poll body. I will certainly take this matter to the highest level of the party,” he said.

A highly placed Election Commission official in Delhi said on condition of anonymity: “We just wanted to execute our constitutional obligations of being fair to all concerned. We have done that.”

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