Churu Lok Sabha Elections 2024: 8 Issues That Will Decide Fate of Rajasthan's BJP Bastion

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posted on 2 months ago — updated on 1 second ago

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Churu will vote in Lok Sabha elections in the first phase of polling on April 19 and the counting of votes will be held on June 4

Churu Lok Sabha constituency, situated in the Shekhawati region of Rajasthan, is one of the 25 parliamentary constituencies. It falls under the General category and includes the entire Churu district, along with a portion of the Hanumangarh district. It currently encompasses eight Legislative Assembly segments — Nohar and Bhadra in Hanumangarh district, and Sadulpur, Taranagar, Sardarshahar, Churu, Ratangarh, and Sujangarh (SC) in Churu district. Churu will vote in Lok Sabha elections in the first phase of polling on April 19 and the counting of votes will be held on June 4. The key candidates in the fray are BJP’s Devendra Jhajaria and Rahul Kaswan of the Congress.

Churu — A BJP Bastion

The BJP has been ruling the seat since 1999. In 2014, Rahul Kaswan, son of the then MP Ram Singh Kaswan, won the seat with a massive margin of 2,95,000 votes and a vote share of 44.85 per cent against the BSP.

Kaswan’s score improved further in 2019, when he retained the seat with a margin of over 3,34,000 votes and a vote share of almost 60 per cent against the Congress which had fielded a Muslim candidate and emerged as the second-largest party. The BSP slipped to the fourth place with a vote share of only 1.21 per cent.

The 2024 election in Churu, however, is going to be a tight contest between BJP and Congress. In a pivotal plot twist, the odds are stacked in favour of Congress since Rahul Kaswan switched parties after being denied a ticket by the BJP.

The Rahul Kaswan Factor

Rahul Kaswan and his father Ram Singh Kaswan, before him, have been consistently winning the seat since 1999. The Kaswans are an influential political family with tremendous sway, especially among Jat voters who form 15 per cent of the population in the state of Haryana.The narrative among Jat voters is that the BJP has let down one of their biggest leaders by denying him a re-election and cutting down his rising stature.

Rahul Kaswan, 47, has played an exhaustive role in ensuring implementation of central schemes during his term as a BJP MP.

Kaswan joining the Congress also has the added angle of addressing the issues of farmers, predominantly Jats, who make up a significant portion of the constituency. He has vowed to take up farmers issues.

The BJP has granted ticket to Devendra Jhajaria, who is also from the Jat community, and a Paralympic gold medallist.

Jhajaria, however, is not a recognised political figure and is no match for Kaswan’s aggressive brand of Jat politics.

Why matters soured between Kaswan and the BJP is rooted in the traditional Rajput-Jat rivalry that flows along this belt. Rajputs are numerically smaller but form the powerful ruling elite.

Rajput leader Rajendra Rathore, another tall figure in the state, has been accused by Kaswan of being instrumental behind the ticket denial to him.

Incidentally, Kaswan is married to the niece of Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankar and his supporters are miffed that even that could not save his seat.

HOW BJP, CONGRESS FARE

The Narendra Modi factor remains strong but BJP faces some challenges owing to the party’s fallout with the Kaswans.

Churu is the place from where the prime minister made his first address immediately after the Balakot airstrikes and it made a significant impact in the seat. This event is said to have propelled the party’s fortunes further in the Jat belt.

However, the key issues since then have shifted to the recent friction between Jats and the BJP— first with the farmers’ protests and then with the wrestlers’ protests over alleged sexual harassment of female wrestlers.

Nationalism and Hindutva, especially Ram Mandir inauguration, will help the BJP significantly. Upper castes and Rajput votes lean towards BJP, and the backward castes will be split between parties.

So far as the Congress is concerned, the five years of the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government in the state had left many unhappy, especially among the farmer community.

The recent exit of 1,370 leaders, among them former ministers, sarpanches, pradhans, and ex-MLAs to the BJP, also caused significant upheaval within the Congress establishment. However, the party has consistently backed Jats on many issues in the last 3-4 years. Now, with Rahul Kaswan joining the Congress party, it has been placed in an advantageous position.

Kaswan could potentially swing Jat votes in the entire Shekhawati region which includes Churu, Nagaur, Jhunjhunu and Bikaner. The Muslim community, that forms 12.9 per cent of the voter population, is also expected to back the Congress. This has given Congress a significant edge in a seat where it previously stood little chance.