Core of Pakistan-Iran Conflict
Pakistan has been a haven for terrorists and it is not a mere accusation but a dominant fact. It’s considered a deep state with corrupt armed forces, Punjabi landlords, and crippled bureaucracy running the state like a cabal. The country is grappling with a series of crises from north to south. Iran conducted an aerial strike on the Balochistan region of Pakistan as the former has been suffering from the deadly terrorist attacks in its Sistan-Baluchistan province. In a recent attack, 11 Iranian police personnel were killed by the terrorist group Jaish al-Adl.
This terrorist organisation operates from Pakistan and has an infamous record against the Shia minorities of Pakistan. Since its inception in 2012, it has been a constant troublemaker for Iran in its southeastern border with Pakistan. Pakistan’s inability to do something about the terrorists operating from its land has compelled Iran to violate the former’s territorial sovereignty.
Iran-Pakistan Relations at a Glance
Iran and Pakistan enjoyed rather friendly relations until recently. Iran was the first state to recognise the state of Pakistan in 1947. Both states have enjoyed cordial relations since Shah Reza Pahlavi’s regime as they fell into the American-led Western bloc during the Cold War. Iran later supplied weapons to Pakistan during the 1965 and 1971 war with India.
The second phase in this cordial relationship started when Iran underwent through Islamic revolution in 1979, Pakistan, on the other hand, was going through its own systemic religious reformation under General Zia-ul-Haq. Both states empowered their Shia and Sunni clergy respectively. Strain in Pakistan-Iran relations first started due to the minority (Shia) persecution in Pakistan. Sunnis started demanding Shias to be declared as non-Muslims as the government of Pakistan did with Ahmeddiyas. Its impact became visible when after the Soviet collapse, Pakistan supported the Sunni Taliban while Iran supported the Shia Northern Alliance. In the 2000s when Pakistan joined the US-led war on terror, it was not received well in Iran.
The current situation therefore is an implosion of long-standing unresolved issues between both states at the heart of which lies Balochistan, which is Pakistan’s largest province but does not have political power in a Punjab-dominated power structure. Baloch population is divided between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan and due to constant ethnic persecution, they are involved in violence against the state whose spillover effect is visible till Tehran.
Pakistan’s choices and limitations
Presently, Pakistan’s economy is in the worst shape. The country has had to take bailout packages from several world financial institutions and allied countries to stay afloat. With delayed elections, law and order, external affairs, governance etc have all taken a back seat. The problems have been further compounded due to continued interference by the military which seems to have overshadowed the caretaker government, judiciary, and various state institutions including the economy.
All indications point towards the fact that the upcoming elections are a sham to install a puppet regime under the leadership of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The absence of a regular government elected through a fair democratic process has further derailed Pakistan’s foreign policy.
The support to the Taliban’s regime was initially considered as a big win for Pakistan’s military establishment, however, the wedge between Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan became visible soon after, as both regimes accused each other of harbouring terrorism. The relationship has nosedived after Pakistan recently ordered the deportation of nearly two million Afghans who have considered Pakistan as their second home. Apart from the hostile response from Afghans, it added to resentment of the Taliban-led regime. Afghanistan under the Taliban has long stopped its formal interactions with Pakistan and the relations are at a historical low. The situation isn’t likely to improve in the near future, given the military’s hold on the ‘democratic’ government in Pakistan.
Once claiming to be a net security provider for oil-rich Gulf monarchies, the nuclear-capable Pakistan now has to live with the aid provided by them. A precarious economic situation has severely impacted its regional clout. On the other hand, Pakistan’s all-weather friend and ally China has made it a client state. The decade-old China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was promised as a beacon of new development for Pakistan, has fallen flat on its face. It has failed to take off largely due to corruption and Pakistan’s democratic instability.
In all, Pakistan is trapped in the vicious circle created by large debt given by China, allied countries and other financial agencies.
Chinese Dilemma
China is an all-weather ally of Pakistan and was crucial in brokering the deal with Iran and Saudi Arabia for the resumption of talks through official channels. China also emerged as a buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil. The Chinese dilemma lies in the fact that, in a conflict-ridden Middle East, it has tried to gain a stronger foothold and a violation of territorial sovereignty between its allies might not be the outcome it would have been expecting here.
What’s Next?
While the partner countries of Iran and Pakistan have called for de-escalation of the conflict, and news of normalisation in relations, there remains an environment of mutual suspicion within both Iran and Pakistan. News reports highlight that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is undertaking a huge military drill very near to the Pakistan-Iran border. If the tension between the two countries escalates any further, given the lack of mutual trust and respect, the situation may spiral and may create long-term problems for already unstable Pakistan and Iran.
It is important to mention that Pakistan also happens to be in deep trouble with Afghanistan where the occasional shooting between Afghan border guards and Pakistan rangers is a new normal. Ironically, at present, Pakistan’s most peaceful border is with India. Experts highlight that due to an already unstable and volatile situation and a host of issues plaguing Pakistan, it cannot afford to be involved in an inter-state war. This will only make the situation of its citizens more miserable who are already suffering due to economic hardships and very high rates of inflation. Any inter-state conflict will make terrorist groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban (Pakistan) adversely disturb the security of the already vulnerable Pakistani nuclear arsenal.
At present, Pakistan’s diplomacy would fare better if it is able to de-escalate the conflicts on its borders. It is also a lesson for the Pakistani establishment that, without strong institutions, they are not going to make a stronger state just with the military. Further, Pakistan’s foreign policy paradigm, which has a trajectory of ‘escaping India’ and aligning with the states which are India’s rivals, is a colossal failure causing problems and exploitation of its resources.
The writer is an author and columnist and has written several books. His X handle is @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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