NITI Aayog in consultation with stakeholders has been readying a vision document for Bharat to evolve as a developed country 25 years from now. This document is expected to be unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 90 days from now. Bharat will celebrate 100 years as an independent nation in 2047, free from the clutches of imperialistic British rule. By then, the country will have to implement a flawless plan to not fall into the classic middle-income trap and emerge as a thriving developed economy.
Given that independent consultancies and multilateral funding agencies foresee the possibility of becoming a developed country, getting there seamlessly is what the government may have to work on. For this to happen, primacy must be on moderating the rising cost of goods and services and at the same time sustaining quality, quantity and price competitiveness for these items, apart from providing access to Bharat’s market.
A national debate may have to be kicked off by NITI Aayog to get the strategy right instead of limiting their consultation to a powerful few that matter today. Fresh ideas and concepts need serious consideration to bolster moves to turn Bharat into the third-largest economy with $30 trillion size overshadowing Germany and Japan by 2030.
Here are the five big ideas that the Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies (CIHS) offers:
Economy’s fourth pillar
Economic restructuring is something that needs to be undertaken urgently and expeditiously, thereby preparing the ground for transformation into a developed country. For that to happen, the fourth pillar of the economy needs to be built painstakingly. Grassroots businesses, cooperatives, and producers’ organisations with direct linkages to consumers may have to don this role. Many of these consumers may also be business partners of these enterprises.
Foreign, domestic, and public sector investments apart from household savings and spending through annual budgets by states and the Centre may not suffice to trigger the transformative change that Bharat is aspiring for. Carving out at least 500,000 grassroots cooperatives in select sectors to provide goods and services, undertake exports and provide jobs may have to be scientifically designed.
Bharat needs to be designed as the ‘largest participative economy’ that’s not constrained or limited by stock markets, portfolio investors, domestic savings or foreign funds. A large number of big, medium and small profitable enterprises in the cooperative sector that are essentially rural will have to emerge and take the lead in the next phase of economic expansion. Extending beyond the possible 50 lakh street vendors, 66 lakh loans and a measly Rs 8600 crore is something that Bharat has to plan for at the grassroots.
From banking, insurance, pension funds to homegrown, low-cost home or family-based enterprises run on the spirit of cooperation and sustainability is what Bharat may have to design.
Recalibrating defunct or loss-making cooperatives by inducing professionalism and spirit of enterprises may be the starting point. Bharat’s government at the Centre, states and local bodies or district administration will have to collaborate to rejig the cooperatives and establish 500,000 new enterprises that are worth billions of dollars.
Antyodaya
Reaching out to the last individual standing in the line should form the bulwark of the restructuring plan that takes Bharat to the aspired third position in the global economic pecking order. In the spirit of Antyodaya, broadening and deepening the economic growth story to turn ‘all-inclusive’ from spread of prosperity to providing services at the lowest strata of village panchayats is something Bharat can work on.
If the message of Lord Rama can be taken to 500,000 villages to mobilise support for the construction of a grand temple at Ayodhya on mission mode, there’s no reason why the ‘Antyodaya’ movement cannot methodically reach these far-flung places and people in seven years. Like Ram Lalla signifies the unification of a diverse Bharat, Antyodaya should serve as a unified economic emancipation and empowerment plan.
Antyodaya cannot be limited to a ‘food scheme’, ‘skills development’ or a couple of projects in states or at the Centre. An economic model that allows the uplift of people at the lowest strata in a protracted but sustained way needs to be rolled out by both Central and state governments in the spirit of ‘Team Bharat’.
For too long, there has been debate on ‘Antyodaya’ as the clinching factor in economic transformation, both in Right-wing and Left of centre political formations. Getting the model right is the key and implementing ‘Antyodaya’ takes each family as a unit to building clusters of self-ruled and sustained villages. This would translate to decentralisation and democratisation at the lowest in the economic pyramid.
100 big Indian brands & companies
Can we take this economic change to a different level? In the next seven years, can we build 100 known desi global brands for goods and services consumed in at least 25 countries each? Should we not chart a plan to build at least 100 large transnational behemoths that account for about $10 trillion? Do our enterprises have the heft to get there and be there in the reckoning? The big question therefore is when do we build our own ‘Apple’ kind of trillion-dollar enterprises? Let’s concede that unless wealth is produced, democratically spread and celebrated, this cannot happen. From banking, insurance, and pension funds to iconic products and services, everything can be ‘Made in India’ for the world, owned by Indians that showcase them with pride.
Identify at least ten sectors in which the transformation can be achieved by drawing up fool-proof plans. Here again, the democratisation of these giant enterprises is what can be attempted with millions of stakeholders controlling the wealth.
Strategic investment plans
Investments and businesses can be dovetailed to suit Bharat’s strategic futuristic plans. This involves careful assessment of Bharat’s interests, both offensive and defensive, to ride on the right horse. Chinese Communist Party has made strategic investments globally to suit President Xi Jinping’s aspiration of ruling the country for a lifetime. In Bharat’s context, it cannot be individual-centric but a role the country would play internationally, both soft and strategic. Identifying a dozen areas with strategic interfaces and clear goalposts set for these enterprises may have to be readied as part of the 2047 action plan.
Criticism from a few Left of centre political formations notwithstanding, Bharat has to ready plans to play a key global role in the spirit of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’.
Strategic independence & engagement
Identifying 25 partner countries to cement investment, trade and economic relations apart from soft power play is what the vision document has to focus on. India’s growing clout globally makes it imperative to chalk out detailed roadmaps for engagement while retaining its strategic independence as reflected in the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Combining development outreach with a soft interplay of cultural and societal interplay is what needs to be elaborated in the 2047 vision document.
No-holds-barred debate on the basic objectives of attaining ‘developed country’ status may precede fine balancing of its vision document. Charting a new economic development plan is what can work best for Bharat.
The author is Director & Chief Executive of New Delhi-based think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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