Sudan Unrest: Why India Is Striking the Right 'Quad' by Staying in Touch With the UK, US, Saudi & UAE | Analysis

Since April 15, when clashes broke out between the Army of Sudan and Paramilitary Forces, the Centre has been in touch with the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia to ensure the safety of Indians stranded in Sudan. Top government sources in New Delhi confirmed that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had a telephonic conversation with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia and the UAE and both the countries assured practical support to India on ground. Even Ambassadors in Washington and High Commission in London are in touch with the Government.

Those stranded have confirmed to News18 that they are in touch with the Indian Embassy in Sudan and a WhatsApp group has been created to keep everyone on alert all the time.

Shivanandan, from Shivamogga in Karnataka who works as a masseuse, said in an interview to News18: “It is very risky to even go down to collect ration as gunmen are roaming everywhere.”

Like Shivanandan, approximately 181 people (exact figure still not known) from Karnataka are stuck in Sudan without food and water, most of them from Hakki Pikki Tribes which possess traditional medicinal knowledge and go to Africa for trade and practice.

According to the official data, the number of Indians in Sudan is around 4,000, including 1,200 who have settled in the country.

The death toll in Sudan has reportedly reached over 180, with another 1,800 people injured. Humanitarian activities have been interrupted in many states due to widespread insecurity. The World Food Programme (WFP) has announced the temporary suspension of operations across the county following the killing of three staff caught in the crossfire in North Darfur. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that several of Khartoum’s hospitals have run out of blood, transfusion equipment, intravenous fluids, and other vital medical supplies. Nine hospitals in Khartoum and two in Bahri (Khartoum North) have closed due to shelling and insecurity.

India has an experience of evacuations in tense situations. Be it from war-hit Ukraine or post the Taliban takeover of Afganistan, India has successfully rescued Indians back to the country in coordination with the agencies concerned.

PRIME GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION

Sudan has witnessed many political coups. The country has also been at the centre of geopolitics owing to its geographical location. It borders the Red Sea where the US, UK fears the potential of a Russian base on Red Sea. Many major geopolitical powers, including Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been trying to get influence over Sudan. Sudan’s strategic location and agricultural wealth have even attracted regional players.

The UAE and Saudi managed to gain influence over Sudan by forming a ‘Quad’ alliance with the US and Britain. This alliance has mediated talks between Sudan, international organisations like the United Nations (UN) and other African Nations.

THE SUDANESE REVOLUTION

The UAE and Saudi Arabia took advantage of the revolutionary uprising of 2018-19 to bring Sudan under their influence. During the uprising, these two nations supported the Army and Paramilitary under the guise of ‘stability’, which resulted in replacement of Al Bashir as a ruler. As per the media reports, the UAE injected about $7 billion in Sudan’s economy.

Both the UAE and Saudi initially had suspicion over Bashir’s intention as he was balancing ties with the UAE, Saudi and Qatar, Tehran. He used to receive subsidies from the UAE and loans from Qatar. Later, the UAE realised this and halted fuel shipments to Sudan which resulted in shortage of foreign exchange, landing the country in an economic turmoil. Bashir cut subsidies on bread, followed by demonstrations, which later became the Sudanese revolution.

During the revolution, Egypt offered exile to Bashir in Saudi Arabia, but he refused, after which three countries (Egypt, UAE, Saudi) reportedly reached out to Abdelfattah Al-Burhan — a military general who had a great equation with three nations and served in Saudi-led forces in Yemen — and Hemedti, the head of Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), for the coup.

A few days later, forces led by Burhan and Hemedti overthrew Bashir and installed the Transitional Military Council (TMC).

Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE got Sudan into confidence as both leaders were loyal to these three countries. Sudan had a government, but no stability.

As revolutionaries and the TMC government were still negotiating, Hemedti’s RSF killed 130 protestors which attracted strong reactions across the globe, and prompted the UK and US to intervene. Both the nations called for a dialogue and behind-the-scenes work alongside the UK and US to broker a deal for stability.

A power-sharing agreement was signed and Burhan, the head of the TMC, was made the head of the sovereignty council and de facto head for the next 21 months, while Hemedti became the deputy head of the council.

However, now Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Hemedti’s RSF are battling for supremacy, leading to the violence in Sudan.

THE QUAD FOR SUDAN

After the revolution, the UAE and Saudi paid millions of dollars to ensure the council government remained loyal to them, and not Qatar or Iran. The UAE lobbied for Sudan for removal of the American sanctions and the label of state sponsor of terrorism. A meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu was fixed, followed by a meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which was quite contrary to the US policy on dealing with civilian governments. The UAE kept funding Hemedti. Reportedly, his mined gold in Sudan is exported to Dubai for sale.

Two days ago, fire was opened at US diplomatic vehicles which led to Secretary of State Antony Blinken holding a telephonic conversation with both Burhan and Hemedti. He warned them about the safety of American citizens and diplomats. The US has a direct line to these two veteran war lords of Sudan.

Blinken urged these two leaders to agree to a 24-hour ceasefire to allow Sudanese to reunite with their families and to obtain the desperately needed relief supplies.

With the UK, Sudan had good bilateral relations. At times, both the nations have seen a dip in relationship, but the UK has been actively involved in Sudan, not only through its foreign office, but many of their organisations have worked in Sudan.

THE EVACUATION

Hence, New Delhi is striking the right cord by exploiting diplomatic relationship to coordinate safety and evacuation of Indians stuck in Sudan. India is engaged at a Government level in New Delhi, and Ambassador level in Washington and London, UK. Jaishankar also spoke to Foreign Ministers of UAE and Saudi Arabia as these two Gulf nations not only have a greater influence over Sudan, but reportedly run the show. The bosses of forces fighting on ground are reportedly funded by the UAE.

The Quad and Troika Statement, which was issued in December 2022, stated, “The Quad and Troika members support this Sudanese-led process and condemn spoilers attempting to restrict political space and undermine Sudan’s stability and democratic transition.”

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