The situation stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic could “stabilise” by the end of 2021 and the world could be in a “comfortable zone” by the middle of the next year, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) director Dr Randeep Guleria told CNN-News18 in a special interview.
He was quick to add that there were two riders on the path: the availability of vaccines and our understanding of the variants of Sars-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid-19.
“I think we will come to a stable situation — if you want me to put it that way; I won’t say the pandemic will end then —possibly by the end of the year. I hope so. And it will take may be another year or (till) the middle of next year to say we are in a comfortable zone,” Guleria said.
Talking about the “riders”, he stressed the importance of the vaccination drive, and talked at length about the variants and the need for aggressive research on them. “Variants…will decide how the pandemic behaves in the future and how we are able to deal with these variants — whether it be vaccination, whether it be Covid-appropriate behaviour or whether it be developing new anti-viral drugs…,” Guleria said. “It’s a game of chess right now with the virus. We have one move and the virus also plays another move. Let’s see who wins by the end of the year.”
Guleria said a sense of complacency that set in among the people and mutations in Sars-Cov-2 that made the virus “more infectious” were the key reasons behind an alarming surge in Covid-19 cases across the country.
“When our cases really came down in January and February and the vaccine roll-out also started, many people started feeling that the pandemic is over and you really don’t need to have Covid-appropriate behaviour…However, the virus had not really gone away. As a matter of fact, it was evolving…it was mutating and becoming more and more infectious,” he said.
Guleria added that “we did not learn from history”, pointing out that “this is what exactly happened” during the influenza pandemic of 1989-90. He said back then the first peak wasn’t that large and people became complacent after that.
“There was no vaccine then. And the second wave was much bigger, caused huge mortality and the number of cases went up dramatically,” Guleria, also a member of a national task force against Covid-19, said.
When asked why citizens should take the responsibility at a time when religious gatherings and elections rallies were happening even as the medical infrastructure had not been ramped up, Guleria said: “No, no, I am not saying it’s the citizen’s responsibility. I am saying it’s the responsibility of everyone. Even for us who should have been more emphatic in giving the message out that the pandemic is not over…We knew in December that there was a new variant circulating in the UK and other parts of the world, and that it will be in India in some point in time…”
“(There was) a false sense of well-being and a premature feeling that everything was alright…I don’t think we should say it’s a citizen’s responsibility. It’s our responsibility also to make sure citizens followed and understood the importance of Covid-appropriate behaviour…I don’t think we are in a stage where we should be pointing fingers. We have to accept what has happened and find a solution because we may have another wave.”
Asked about the Kumbh gathering and crowded election rallies specifically, Guleria said it’s time to work “collectively” and bring down the spiralling cases. He added that there should be a “multi-pronged attack” on the pandemic involving, among other strategies, Covid-appropriate behaviour and aggressive testing and tracking.
“You have to avoid crowd…whatever be the function. We must avoid formation of crowds because they can be super-spreading events whatever be the event,” he said.
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