Gulf economies will see significant economic revival from next year post COVID-19 pandemic, a former Indian envoy said on Tuesday, asserting that he does not see a scenario where the Indian expatriate community's presence will be jeopardised in the region.
On reports about a large number of people from the Gulf region seeking to return to India, Talmiz Ahmad, a former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE, said due to lockdown of airlines, there was a backlog of people who wanted to come back in normal course.
These people included those who have completed their work contract and those who no longer have employment.
"Most of them would have traveled in the normal course. There is no panic departure, no panic return," Ahmad told PTI.
"Next year onwards, with (crude) oil prices stabilising (to around USD 30 per barrel) and global demand stabilising and I think Gulf countries will make every effort to return to business as usual. I do not see any scenario in terms of which Indian communitys presence will be jeopardised, he said.
Ahmad added: Only a small number (of Indian expats) will come back, this year we are already seeing the beginning of the stability in prices, from next year we will see significant revival in the economic activity in the Gulf and therefore I do not envisage any scenario where our peoples presence will be seriously jeopardised.
According to Indian Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Pavan Kapoor, the first two special flights that will operate from Thursday to evacuate Indians stranded in the UAE due to the coronavirus pandemic will begin with applicants from Kerala, who formed the majority of the expatriates who have registered to be repatriated from Dubai.
On Monday, the Centre announced plans to begin a phased repatriation of its citizens stranded abroad from May 7.
"The missions have prioritised the list of passengers and have given it to the Air India. We would call and email each passenger to contact Air India to get their tickets issued. The first two flights on Thursday would be to Kerala, considering the high number of applicants from the state, Kapoor was quoted as saying by the Gulf News.
He said the priority list includes blue collar workers in distress, people with medical emergencies, including the elderly and pregnant women, and those who have lost jobs, the report added.
Ahmad, a former Additional Secretary for International Cooperation in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, meanwhile, said about two lakh Indians lost their jobs in the UAE in 2009 when global economy crashed leading to sharp fall in the real estate market and very uncertain outlook for the Emirates economy.
According to him, those returning to India from the UAE this time would be in the range of 50,000 to 75,000 in the next three months, including a large number of people who have completed their contracts, whose companies have close down, those coming back for personal reasons and family members of those still working.
He said oil prices had started going down from 2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic has only aggravated the problem.
"Gulf countries have experienced price fluctuations very often. It is not as if the Gulf economies are not familiar with this (low oil prices), said Ahmad, considered an expert on Gulf region.
"Gulf countries have very deep pockets, and they have extraordinary, unique capacity to manage such crises.
Gulf economies have resilience that no other country can match, and they have huge resources available to them, already in their sovereign funds.
"Their credit worthiness globally is very high. So, international organisations are very happy to support their projects, he added.
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