Expect a lot of trouble in Pakistan in the days to come. Nawaz Sharif has taken the plunge and Gen Musharraf has taken the bait. Which way is the script going to play out now?
Will the Supreme Court intervene? It will. The pressure on Nawaz was never legal though, but moral.
Much is being made about an agreement between Nawaz Sharif and Gen Musharraf in December 2000. Gen Musharraf accuses Nawaz Sharif of going against his word of staying out Pakistan for 10 years. Nawaz Sharif says, it was never 10, but five years. He says, Saad Hariri of Lebanon is witness to this and had taken the responsibility of changing the number of years of exile.
Be that as it may, the Supreme Court of Pakistan, with Chief Justice Iftekhar Chaudhary on the bench, has already dismissed the paper as being without any legal sanctity. The domestic law of Pakistan does not have any legal provision to deport a citizen. The court upheld the appeal of the Sharif brothers earlier in August to return to Pakistan, therefore, without let or hindrance.
Nor was there any arrest warrant against Nawaz Sharif till this afternoon. There was one against Shahbaz Sharif, for murder.
However, three cases were re-opened at Pakistan’s National Accountability Bureau (NAB) against Nawaz Sharif. There is no provision of anticipatory bail for an arrest warrant issued by this Bureau. Nawaz could not have got one. An arrest warrant was served on him at Islamabad airport. If media reports are to be believed, Nawaz chose to be arrested when offered a choice of deportation. Once arrested though on an NAB charge, the accused has to be produced before the court. Here’s where Nawaz was counting on the support of the Supreme Court.
It’s clear that the government will have some explaining to do at the Supreme Court. However, it is difficult to see how the Supreme Court can force the government to get Nawaz back.
Will Nawaz be free to go to London? Highly unlikely.
The word so far is that Jeddah will not have a warm welcome this time. Curiously, in the London news conference that Nawaz had on Saturday, he claimed that the Saudi King too had agreed the term of exile should not exceed five years.
It is difficult to see how Nawaz could have made such a tall claim that could be patently false. Saad Hariri has not gone public yet on the claims made by Nawaz. However, the Saudi government is firmly behind Gen Musharraf.
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One possibility is that Nawaz lied in his London news conference on Saturday. If not, what explains Saudi Arabia’s continued backing of the 10 year term of exile? There is the strong possibility that the US is now putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to stand by Gen Musharraf. There have been a lot of reports in the Pakistani media of the US brokering a deal between Benazir Bhutto and Gen Musharraf. If these reports are true, Nawaz’s return is a blow to the US’ plans. Apart from Nawaz though, Musharraf’s own party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) has been advising Musharraf to allow Nawaz into the country and not deport him.
What’s next in Pakistan?
Musharraf is a man who loves to play to the gallery. He is now looking for the right opportunity to do so. I had the occasion to interview him in detail in September 2000, when he revealed to me first that he wanted to be President. He will not want to go against the Supreme Court or be seen as a martial law dictator. He has come close to imposing an emergency. That possibility remains.
A deal with Benazir Bhutto is reportedly stuck because Musharraf’s party, the PML (Q), led by Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain, has said no to Benazir being allowed to run for a third time as Prime Minister. This is where the Americans come in. Can they swing an arrangement wherein she returns without this guarantee for now and her party backs Gen Musharraf’s re-election plans?
Gen Musharraf hates Benazir Bhutto. I remember his contempt for her very clearly. For him to sup with the devil now, there has to be a very strong reason. That reason could be American pressure. News of that telephone conversation with Condoleeza Rice on the eve of declaring emergency only strengthens this supposition.
Either way, the credibility of Gen Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto have taken a severe beating. Ultimately, it is now clear, the Presidential elections in Pakistan will hold little credibility.
(Dr Vidya Shankar Aiyar is a Senior Editor/Anchor with CNN-IBN)
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