New Delhi: The BJP is headed for big wins in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand but is projected to suffer a drubbing with ally Akali Dal in Punjab, a poll of polls by Network18 and Gramener has projected.
The Network18-Gramener projection said the BJP would win 193 seats in Uttar Pradesh, just short of the halfway mark of 202 in the 403-seat Assembly. The Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance is predicted to get 133 seats, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is tipped to stand third with 67 seats.
Times Now-VMR poll forecast 190-210 seats for the BJP in the UP assembly, while India News-MRC gave it 185 and ABP-Lokniti CSDS 164-176 seats. If BJP wins UP, it would be a return to power for the party in the politically significant and volatile state after 15 years. The three polls projected 110-130, 120 and 156-169 seats respectively for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and 57-74, 90 and 60-72 seats for the Mayawati-led BSP.
Among the states that went to the polls, Punjab is likely to prove as the biggest upset of all with debutant Aam Aadmi Party predicted to emerge as the single-largest party in the 117-seat Assembly. The Network18-Gramener projection said Arvind Kejriwal’s party is projected to get 54 seats, five short of the halfway mark. The Congress is likely to emerge as the runner-up with 53 seats, while the ruling BJP-Akali Dal combine seems headed for a massive defeat with just 10 seats.
India Today-Axis exit poll predicted 62-71 seats for the Congress in 117-member Punjab assembly, a comfortable majority, and 42-51 to Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP. The Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine was projected to be decimated in the state which it has ruled for a decade. All polls showed the alliance getting reduced to a single digit tally. However, India TV-C Voter projected 59-67 seats for debutante AAP and 41-49 for the Congress. India News-MRC and News 24-Chanakya forecast a dead heat by giving 55 and 54 seats each to both parties.
In the hill state of Uttarakhand, where the halfway mark is 36, the BJP is projected to win 38 seats. Network18-Gramener projection puts the Congress behind with 26 seats.
The AXIS Exit Poll has predicted a clear majority for the saffron party with 46-53 seats. Today’s Chanakya and MRC too has predicted an absolute majority for the party with 53 and 38 seats, respectively.
In the coastal state of Goa, the BJP is projected to be just two seats short of the halfway mark of 21. As per the Network18-Gramener projection, the Congress will get 14 seats in the 40-seat Assembly. The AAP is not projected to have a successful debut in this state and may get six seats.
The AXIS and C Voter Exit Polls have predicted a clear majority for the BJP in Goa, giving it 18-22 and 15-21 seats, respectively. The party has not projected incumbent Laxmikant Parsekar as the CM face and has hinted at Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s return to state politics.
In Manipur, the BJP is predicted to fall short of the halfway mark of 31 and is predicted to get 25 seats. The Network18-Gramener projection said the Congress will win 24 seats in the 60-seat Assembly.
In Manipur, others, too, predicted a close fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP. Congress has been ruling the northeastern state for the last 15 years.
Counting of votes across five states will begin at 7am on Saturday, March 11.
Here's a look at the Network18-Gramener projections:
Methodology
Gramener has considered a two-fold measure to assign weights to the agency level numbers:
1. Using poll projection intervals for estimation
2. Weighted based on deviation from point estimates
Using a methodology to combine the above approaches effectively, Gramener has provided a single factor as an accuracy measure. This two factors based scheme has been found to assign weights to the agencies with higher accuracy.
Poll predictions for Goa have been calculated using national numbers, as agency level detailing wasn't available for this state.
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