The worst affected 15 districts in India, in terms of the number of cases, account for nearly 61 per cent of the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country.
Maharashtra, the most severely-affected state, contains five such districts and Gujarat and Tamil Nadu follow with two each.
Mumbai has registered 61,665 cases alone — more than countries like Belgium, Sweden, Netherlands, UAE, Indonesia and Switzerland among others. It contributes to a little more than half of the total number of cases in Maharashtra and around 17 per cent of the national figure.
Five other districts have reported more than 10,000 cases — Delhi (we are considering Delhi as one district in this analysis due to its smaller size compared to other states), Chennai, Thane, Ahmedabad and Pune.
Chennai, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad account for more than 65 per cent of the total number of cases in their state.
Gurugram has seen a sudden spike in the number of cases post Unlock 1.0. The cases have increased almost five times in the 16 days of June — a spike of almost 376 per cent. The district accounts for 42 per cent of the cases in Haryana. Alarmingly, its Positivity Ratio soars from 6.46 per cent till June 1 to 14.88 per cent on June 11. This means the district recorded a Positivity Ratio of a staggering 41.5 per cent between June 1 and 11, basically implying that almost every second person tested was positive. Even more worryingly, 91 per cent deaths in Gurugram have been reported in June.
The only silver lining for Gurugram is that from a 44 per cent increase in cases between June 8 and 13, the next three days reported a jump of 18 per cent. After a continuous rise since the beginning of June, the active cases have also seen a dip from June 13 and fallen from 1,940 to 1,722 on June 16.
Chengalpattu, one of the four districts in Tamil Nadu which will be under lockdown from June 19 to 30, also saw its cases almost trebling this month.
Palghar district of northern Maharashtra, famous for its production of chikoo, has witnessed a surge in cases in June with the number rising by two and a half times in this period.
Note: We have taken Delhi as one district for this analysis due to its smaller size compared to other states
Amongst the metro cities, Delhi has recorded the highest growth since June. The capital registered its highest spike on June 17 of 2,414 cases and has averaged more than 2,000 cases for the past week. Coupled with that, its Mortality Rate has also risen significantly from 2.38 per cent at the end of May to 4.04 per cent on June 18.
Chennai has also witnessed a similar rate of growth as Delhi in June. However, there has been a fall in the daily new cases for the past week and early trends indicate of the possible beginning of the flattening of the curve.
Hyderabad and Kolkata have also seen a sharp rise in the number of cases in June. The five-day Median of New Cases indicates a potential decline in Aurangabad and a possible flattening of the curve in Thane.
Mumbai has shown signs of recovery and has a growth rate of just 55 per cent in June — much lower than some of the other big districts of the country. The five-day Median of New Cases suggests that there is a decline in daily cases in India’s financial capital. Mumbai’s Doubling Rate of Cases has also gone up substantially from 13 days on May 31 to 29 days on June 18. However, the backlog of deaths which were updated on June 16, has meant that the Mortality Rate has actually gone up in the last month from 3.56 per cent on May 18 to 5.13 per cent on June 18.
Ahmedabad, which has the second-highest Mortality Rate after Kolkata among the big districts in India, has seen a flattening of the New Cases curve. However, doubts remain over the number of tests being conducted in the city.
Indore has been a real success story. The Madhya Pradesh district has seen a rise of 17.51 per cent only in June. After two weeks of a decrease in daily cases, the district recorded just 6 cases out of a 1,058 tests conducted on June 14. Indore’s Positivity Rate had been on the decline since June 1. Not only has the district flattened the curve but managed to push it on a downward path. A strict lockdown coupled with strategic contact tracing have been the twin mantras for Indore’s remarkable turnaround.
Containing the spread of the virus in these 15 districts will go a long way in helping India win the battle against Covid-19.
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