With recession hitting US and a large part of Europe, Indians are becoming a worried lot. Though there have not been any lay-offs in the country as yet, the financial tsunami has already claimed some victims. Naukri.com COO, Hitesh Oberoi answered queries of IBNLive readers on the job scenario in India and whether this is a good time to change jobs or to stay put in one place and let the recession blow over. Read on
Pintu: Is India also in recession?
Hitesh Oberoi: Most economists feel that India will grow at 7pc this year and 6pc next year. However growth in the next two quarters could slow down to under 5pc and then there could be a mild recovery with growth picking up towards the 2nd half. My sense is that India will probably grow at 5-6 pc only for the next 12 months. This is not really a recession. Yes companies have hired assuming 9pc growth and therefore they will take a few months to adjust to this new reality and hiring may slow down considerably in this period.
Keyur: Hi Nitesh. Good Evening. What is your view on job opportunities in BFSI segment for IT industries? I feel that due to cost cutting activities in US and all over world, cheap Indian labour will be at distinct advantage and more job opportunites will be available.
Hitesh Oberoi: The BFSI segment is the worst affected. It may take some time (atleast 6-9months) for the BFSI segment to recover. Other segments will recover much faster in my opinion
Rahul: Hi, I am working as a functional consultant in one of the banking product companies in India. Given the present outlook, though the Indian IT companies have not really started layoff, however if they do, what are prospects of firing functional folks, as they are way less compared to software developers or technical folks.
Hitesh Oberoi: There has always been a shortage of functional consultants. I think your job is relatively safe.
Deepjyoti Paul: What do you feel about the recent future of mid time placement consultants?
Hitesh Oberoi: Consultants which are dependant on only 1-2 sectors or just 2-3 clients may run into problems especially if they are not financially strong.
Yoganathan: What's your take on changing jobs now, any tips?
Hitesh Oberoi: Do your research well. Go to a company which is well funded, profitable and can take a couple of bad quarters in its stride.
Deepjyoti Paul: Do you think there will be a dot com bust as there was in 2000-2001?
Hitesh Oberoi: Any company which is not well funded and does not have a business model which works whether a dotcom or otherwise will face a tough time.
Anil Kumar: What you think about IT jobs in India after Obama has been elected president. Are the numbers going to come down?
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Hitesh Oberoi: I don't think so. Obama has been talking about giving tax breaks to companies which don't move jobs offshore. However, the economics of outsourcing is compelling. The numbers may go down for a while because of the slowdown in US demand, but I am sure they will start picking up in six months. India is not the problem. It's actually part of the solution.
Ankur: Will the situation worsen and how will it impact the IT companies?
Hitesh Oberoi: In my opinion these two quarters will be the worst. Things should start looking up the world over from April. However, it may take a year for the situation to return to normal. I doubt that Indian IT companies will lay off. Sure there could be a few odd cases with small and mid-sized companies and entry level hiring will be affected but most companies are strong enough to see through a couple of bad quarters.
Bhavesh: Hi Hitesh, I am working with an IT company in Pune. We are in Out Source Product Developement firm. I am working with this company for the last two years and I have overall four years of experience in Software Testing field. Is my job is safe or not or should I go for change and get into some other place, I am not concerned about a pay hike for I have come from the Civil industry to software.
Hitesh Oberoi: It may be a good idea to play safe. Put your resume on a job board and do meet a few consultants. Also use your network of friends to find out if there are job opportunities with other companies in Pune.
Madhav: What are the poosibilites of pay cuts other than the lay offs which most companies are resorting to?
Hitesh Oberoi: Pay cuts are unlikely. However increments and bonuses could get affected a lot next year.
Tarun Aggarwal: If we are working for one of the top 10 S/W company and you plan to change to other, what is the percentage hike you should expect?
Hitesh Oberoi: You should switch jobs only if you are getting more responsibility and a better role. Unlikely that in this slowdown anyone would give you more than 20pc over your previous salary. And I don't think it's worth changing jobs for a 20pc jump.
Apurva Kumar: Hi Hitesh, do you think Indian corporates are over-reacting to lay offs and job cuts? The Government has a different view on this. The FM says we would end with 7.5% growth. Don't you think corporates are more concerned with their profits than employee welfare?
Hitesh Oberoi: I am not sure many companies have started laying off as yet. Till six months ago companies were not able to hire quality people since there was a huge shortage. Except for a couple of sectors like aviation, financial services and real estate which have been badly affected because of either fuel prices or the liquidity crisis most companies would want to adopt a wait and watch approach and not let people who they hired with such great difficulty go. Well corporates are answerable to their shareholders but they are smart enough to understand that in today's world you cant run a great operation unless you have happy, satisified employees.
Viral: Dear Sir, are Infrastructure Development and Infrastructure Finance Sectors are also going to be like real estate or are they the safe haven where one can join for new job after leaving realty sector?
Hitesh Oberoi: Sectorally this sector is in better shape than real estate. However a lot depends on whether the project you will be working in has been funded. Some projects have not reached financial closure as yet and companies may find it difficult to raise capital in the next few months. You must do your research on the project that you will be working on.
Kalinga: Hi, I am working in telecom sector in a start-up so I am little scared after the current lay offs worldwide. Is it a right time to switch over, or is it good to stay back in the current company?
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Hitesh Oberoi: If your startup has a robust business model and is well funded you should continue otherwise you should move to a bigger telecom company.
Kalinga: Hi Hitesh, How badly the telecom sector will be affected due to the crisis?
Hitesh Oberoi: Not affected. Telecom users are still growing at a 100 million a year. New licenses are being given out and new companies are coming in. Telecom will continue to do well for a while.
Ahamed: Dear Hitesh, even though the Global Economic Meltdown hitting on one side, The Indian IT & ITES Companies gaining in rise of the dollar against the rupee on other side? Is there really a need for layoff in IT & ITES Sector? Can't they compensate the losses with rise of dollar factors or through curbing fatty benefits ∧ expenses?
Hitesh Oberoi: True. However the same dollar was at Rs 39 a while ago and most companies thought the dollar would go to Rs 35. The situation is volatile and uncertain. What IT and ITES companies are facing today is a slight slowdown in demand. There is no real pressure on profitability in the short run. I don't see this sector will see many layoffs. Sure hiring will slow down and companies will want to utilise their workforce to the maximum till they start getting new projects.
Ramesh Patil: Is it safe to change the jobs at present situation in semiconductor industry?
Hitesh Oberoi: Yes but only if you decide to move to a bigger and better company.
Nitesh: Hi.How much would be the imapct of job cut in India and how long do you think such a situation would be there?
Hitesh Oberoi: Two quarters.
Rao: Have seen impact of global economic turbulence affecting India, how long will it last here? Which are the sectors which would continue to hire as per you?
Hitesh Oberoi: The financial crisis has affected all countries including India. Hiring has slowed down. Relatively speaking though India is still okay. Sectors like real estate, financial services, export oriented units commercial vehicles etc are affected. However sectors like telecom, insurance and even some IT companies continue to hire though in lesser numbers than earlier.
Akhil: How much time will it take to get the situation back to normal?
Hitesh Oberoi: At least two quarters.
Atul: Hi Hitesh, How much time do you think it would take for the companies to come back to recruitment mode again. Are there any trends that you might have from the past?
Hitesh Oberoi: There is still a lot of recruitment happening. While jobs on naukri have come down we still have over 70,000 listings on the site, most companies run multiple business units. Recruitment is likely to slow down in mature businesses but it's likely to continue in new projects which are well funded. For example we at Naukri are still hiring in businesses like Shiksha, 99acres etc which are relatively newer ventures for us.
Jitendra: What are the prospects for Instructional Designers? Are they going to be laid off. Whats the prospect for e-learning companies?
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Hitesh Oberoi: Most Elearning companies today do outsourcing work for clients abroad. Most of these relationships are long term. Outsourcing to India is still cheaper than getting work done in the US. However you need to find out more about your company's clients and whether there are enough projects in the pipeline. Generally speaking big companies which have strong business development teams should not get affected.
Vivek Mankad: I am working as a SAP consultant. How is the market for SAP consultants?
Hitesh Oberoi: SAP was in great demand 6 months ago. A lot of Big IT companies had projects and they were unable to find people. I am sure demand for SAP professionals will continue to be robust. However you need to figure out whether your company has enough projects in the pipeline. Otherwise you may want to look at companies where there are projects but not enough people.
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