Poling is over, exit polls are out but there is no clear word on who will win Manipur. The exit polls have been on point about the muddle in the mind of the voters. There was no wave in Manipur, towards the very end even the hill versus valley divide did not hold much of a ground, there was just one factor in this election: Okram Ibobi Singh.
For the Congress, this was a one man show and the three-time Chief Minister made no bones about making it clear. Speaking to News18, Ibobi dismissed that this was his most difficult elections ever. He said ' the only difference is that a number of union ministers have been visiting the state. My party asked me what do I want, I said since Prime Minister is doing a rally so the Congress Vice President should also do one.' He went to on to say getting other leaders would mean arranging for their security, stay and other logistics.
If Congress is able to retain one state in any of the states post the great 2014 debacle, it would be more because of this one one, who probably is the 'The Last Satrap' left with the party.
But this is not going to be easy. On the streets, there is a huge disenchantment against him. He is often called the Mr 10 percent. The 'Zardari-esqe' name comes from the allegations of gross corruption in state projects. There is also the allegation that he has made Manipur his fiefdom, got his son, nephew, brothers and other family members to contest polls, get government contracts and basically become rich.
The polling process is taking place under the shadow of a 4-month long blockade which saw the prices of essential commodities skyrocket. His term has seen Manipur become the hot bed of 'Fake encounters'. Between 2008 to 2011, the state had highest per capita 'fake encounters' across the country and was second only to Uttar Pradesh numerically.
The BJP in Manipur is basically a party of former congressmen, those who were either at war with Ibobi or fell out with him in the course of the last 15 years and a few other leaders who have come from Trinamool Congress and others. A clutch of senior leaders which include probable CM faces have actually migrated from INC. Senior leaders of BJP whether N Biren or Y Erabot or even O Chauba, all had been part of the Congress at different part of the time.
Working with them, though is the winning team of Assam. Ram Madhav, Himanata Biswasarma and BJP in charge for Manipur Prakash Javadekar, have all been camping here.
But given the fact that there is virtually no presence of the RSS or any of the Sangh affiliates and the strong undercurrent of the Meitei sub-nationalism, the pet peeves of the BJP couldn't become an issue. Thus in spite of the valley being predominately Hindu and the hills being seen primarily Christian, BJP was made to be seen as a pro-hill party or a pro-Naga party.
The four month long blockade by United Naga Council, which is said to be the front organisation of NSCN(IM), can dent BJP's fortune. The Central government is in advanced stage of talks with NSCN(IM) regarding the issues pertaining to 'Greater Nagalim' and at almost every election rally Ibobi stressed on how in spite of this 'cosy' relationship, BJP failed to convince them to lift the blockade.
One of the main demands of the Nagas is the territorial integration of all the Naga dominated areas. They want Naga districts of Manipur to also be part of it. This is what majority of Manipur has a huge problem with. Ahead of the elections, Ibobi played a dangerous game to capitalise on this factor.
Just months before the elections, Ibobi Singh announced the creation of 7 new districts. In a seemingly innocuous statement the Chief Minister said "Manipur will now have 16 districts and the decision for formation of 7 new districts was taken for administrative convenience and to enable the state government to take up development works effectively even in the remote and underdeveloped parts of the state," This came even as the United Naga Council (UNC) launched an economic blockade in Manipur against the formation of Sadar Hills (Kangpokpi) and Jiribam districts.
Thus while the Nagas were enraged by the further division of Naga-dominated districts, it made for administrative ease of Kukis and other. Effectively Ibobi was successful in making the election a direct battle between Naga and the rest.
There are around 40 seats in the valley districts in an assembly of 60. Ibobi is hoping to get the backing of two of the three dominant communities of Manipur. If he is to come back, this is one move which will have to work for him. Other than that the anti-incumbency is all too apparent on the streets here.
And this is the great irony of Manipur. It is the only state where polarisation favours the Congress and BJP is hoping against hope that the Hill vs Valley tension doesn't dent their vote share.
And thus no wonder that the three time Congress Chief Minister has called this poll a 'referendum' for himself.
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