New Delhi: The spectacular victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi Assembly elections is encouraging Arvind Kejriwal's party to go national. The AAP has already decided to contest in at least 300 Lok Sabha seats across India.
It has also identified 10 key states, where it hopes to make a difference. The AAP's ideologue and key strategist Prof. Yogendra Yadav is giving final touches to its ambitious plans of spreading the wings across the nation.
Yogendra Yadav is an internationally acclaimed psephologist and a political analyst. The AAP also attributes its success in Delhi to Kejriwal's mass appeal and Yadav's brain.
According to political analysts, Kerjiwal's gains can be Narendra Modi's loss. Modi and Kejriwal are using the same anti-graft and good governance issue to woo voters. Both are targeting the educated middle and upper middle class voters.
The difference is the AAP is also targeting the lower class, which has been a strong vote bank of the Congress.
If the AAP succeeds in the Lok Sabha polls, it can be a loss for Modi. In Delhi, Modi was targeting all 7 Lok Sabha seats. The AAP has now dashed his hopes. The BJP may not be able to win more than 3-4 seats from Delhi.
Modi's appeal is also huge in urban areas across India. The AAP is gaining popularity in urban centres. Finally the AAP may wean away lower class votes from the Congress and middle class votes from the BJP.
According analysts even if the AAP wins just 10-15 Lok Sabha seats, it can defeat the BJP and Congress in at least 70-100 seats, if it manages to keep the momentum till the Lok Sabha polls. In such a scenario, the possibility of the emergence of a Third Front rule is also quiet possible.
Both the Congress and the BJP dismiss AAP's national ambitions as day dreaming.
AAP's 10 key states:
Delhi:
Delhi has 7 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress won all 7 seats in 2009. This time the BJP was expected to sweep before the AAP decimated the Congress in Assembly polls. According to AAP, it is going to win all 7 seats. The BJP is now less confident. Insiders say, it can win 3-4 seats. As of now, the Congress is not confident of winning even a single seat. Delhi will witness a triangular fight in the Lok Sabha polls.
Haryana:
The AAP thinks that Haryana is a fertile ground for the party. Both Kejriwal and Yadav are from Haryana. It's proximity to Delhi also makes it strategically important for the party. Both the Congress and Om Prakash Chautala's INLD are facing serious corruption charges. Kuldeep Bishnoi's party is confined only to Hisar. The BJP has a marginal presence in the state. If the AAP manages to win 3-4 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, it can emerge as a serious contender in the Assembly elections due early 2015. Haryana has 11 Lok Sabha seats.
Punjab:
The AAP is untested in Punjab. However, the party hopes that the people will vote against both SAD and Congress. It also thinks that the profile of the voters is almost the same like Delhi and Haryana.
A lot of people are also joining the party. The AAP is hoping to vanquish both SAD and Congress in Punjab by promising a clean and simple government. Punjab has 13 Lok Sabha seats plus Chandigarh, which is a Union territory.
Karnataka:
The AAP is not even a marginal player in Karnataka. But, the state contributed nearly Rs.2 crore for Delhi elections and thousands of educated volunteers from the state worked for it in the assembly polls. The AAP is hoping to win at least 1 Lok Sabha seat from the state. It is focusing on all three Lok Sabha seats in Bangalore city. According to Yogendra Yadav the support for the AAP in rural areas of the state is growing and it can certainly give Congress, BJP and JDS a run for their money. Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats.
Tamil Nadu
The AAP has a few thousands volunteers in the state. The party may not be able to take on AIADMK and DMK. But the AAP strategists hope that the people of Tamil Nadu are waiting for a change and they will surely rally behind a new party like the AAP.
According eminent historian Ramachandra Guha, a Hindi name like Aam Aadmi Party may not work in a city like Chennai and a state like Tamil Nadu. But, the AAP believes that the name really does not matter and what matters is party's agenda. Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats plus Pondicherry which is a Union territory.
Goa
The AAP can really make a difference in the tiny state of Goa. Like Kejriwal, Goa's BJP chief minister Manohar Parrikar is also an IITian. He also leads a simple life and known for his administrative skills.
A renowned Goan singer like Remo Fernandes has joined the AAP raising hopes. Explaining his decision to join the AAP, he said, "People have been asking me to join politics. The reason why I didn't join politics was that every party was an embarrassment."
The state has 2 Lok Sabha seats.
Maharashtra
The AAP really wants to make a mark in India's financial capital Mumbai. It is focusing on the metropolis. The AAP wants to expose established players like Congress, BJP, Shiv Sena and MNS. According to Yogendra Yadav, the party can definitely win a few Lok Sabha seats from Mumbai and rest of Maharashtra. The big question is will the voters of Anna Hazare's home state vote for his one time disciple Kejriwal's party. The state has 48 Lok Sabha seats.
Gujarat
The AAP wants to take the battle to Narendra Modi's doorstep. The AAP believes that the voters of Gujarat are disillusioned with Modi. The only reason they are still voting for him is the unpopularity of the Congress. The AAP strategists believe that the Gujaratis will back AAP. The state has 26 Lok Sabha seats.
Uttar Pradesh
The AAP is working in the state seriously. A large number of UP natives voted for the party in Delhi and it is hoping to replicate the same in some parts of the state. The AAP is focusing on satellites towns of national capital, Noida and Ghaziabad. It has also decided to take on Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in Rae Bareily and Amethi. The AAP wants to take on SP, BSP, Congress and BJP in the state.
According to AAP's Kumar Vishwas, the AAP is rearing to go. UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats.
Bihar
India's poorest state can be a real testing ground for the AAP. A large number of natives of Bihar have voted for the AAP in Delhi assembly polls. The AAP is a familiar word in Bihar because of the migrant Biharis living in Delhi. The AAP feels that it can certainly make a mark in Bihar by defeating major parties. The state has 40 seats.
Besides these states, the AAP is also focusing on Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
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