The polls for Pakistan’s National Assembly and its four provincial Assemblies closed at 5 pm on Thursday. The Pakistani people expected that the country’s Election Commission would succeed in declaring the election results by the early hours of this morning. This is because under Pakistani practice, the counting of votes is done in the election booths itself and the candidates’ agents are informed of the results. These booth results are then forwarded to the Election Commission where they are tabulated, and after scrutiny, officially announced. However, all the election results have not been announced as of 12.30 pm Pakistan time, leading to confusion and speculation that the commission is engaged in rigging the results.
In the absence of the official declaration of results by the commission, Pakistani TV channels have begun announcing results as they are becoming aware of them. These indicate that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) candidates who have been compelled to contest as independents because they were disallowed from using the party symbol are doing well in the National Assembly in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces. The fact that the Election Commission is silent has given rise to the speculation that it is manipulating the results against these PTI candidates who are contesting as independents.
A major illustration is that of the election from a Lahore constituency in which the Pakistan Muslim League (N) supremo and thrice Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was pitted against a PTI lady candidate contesting as an independent. Since last night till about 10.30 am, the TV channels were showing that Nawaz Sharif was trailing by around 7000 votes. Suddenly, an announcement came into the channels that he had finally won by around 56000 votes. The TV commentators were taken by surprise and some of them raised doubts about the credibility of the result.
It is entirely possible that the earlier numbers which showed Nawaz Sharif trailing were those of areas where he was unpopular but when votes began to be counted of areas which were his strongholds then he easily won the election. However, a cloud has come over his victory. This is not the case though with the victories of his brother Shehbaz Sharif who headed the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government as Prime Minister or that of his daughter Maryam Nawaz or of Shehbaz Sharif’s son and former Punjab province Chief Minister Hamza Nawaz.
As I write these lines a prominent Pakistani TV channel announced that it had unofficially obtained full results of 103 out of the 265 National Assembly seats. It claims that of these 48 were won by Independents the vast majority of whom were PTI candidates contesting as independents. At the same time, PML(N) has won 30 and the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) has got 23 seats. At the same time, the Election Commission website is showing the results of only 50 seats in which the PML(N) is being shown as having a slender lead. Confusion continues and the Pakistani people are full of suspicion and speculation.
It is also clear that the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) National Assembly seats are from Sindh. The PPP should also be able to retain the Sindh Provincial Assembly. It has gained a few seats in southern Punjab for the National Assembly. The election results may therefore be positive for them and enable them to play a role in the formation of the national government. This is especially because of the good showing by the PTI candidates who contested as independents which as of now indicates that no party on its own will be able to form a national government on its own.
The Pakistani army, the judiciary, the Election Commission and the major political parties took all actions they could to finish off the PTI. The informal results that are being announced by the Pakistani media show that Imran Khan retains a large measure of support. Also, his supporters came out in good numbers to vote for the PTI candidates who contested as independents.
At the same time, PML(N) supporters showed a degree of apathy. It would be deeply embarrassing for the Pakistani establishment if PTI candidates who contested as independents become the single largest group in the National Assembly. The PTI may not be able to form a government because it would not have an existence, as a party, in the National Assembly but Imran Khan would get space, even from jail, to play political games.
The next few hours are crucial for Pakistani politics and national life. There is no doubt that all attempts would still be made by the establishment to deny the PTI candidates who contested as independents to emerge as the single largest group. However, despite their best efforts the establishment may not succeed in doing so.
That will set the stage for massive politicking and the army playing a role in government formation from behind the scenes. This may include pressure on those elected in Imran Khan’s name being compelled to join other parties. Certainly, even at this stage Army Chief General Asim Munir knows that if Imran Khan again becomes a political factor in Pakistan’s political life, he will not be able to remain in the country.
All eyes of the region are on Pakistan and the dubious developments taking place in the Muslim Ummah’s only country possessing nuclear weapons. Pakistan continues to be in a political and economic mess.
The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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