This month’s upcoming assembly polls in five states spread across the country pose a crucial test for the Congress party’s ability to lead the newly formed pan-opposition alliance ‘INDIA’ in next year’s national elections. By performing handsomely in the polls, the Congress will impress other Opposition parties as a robust fulcrum of the alliance while simultaneously boosting the winning prospects of INDIA in the Lok Sabha polls which are just a few months away. A poor or patchy performance by the Congress, on the other hand, will give the impression in political circles and among voters that the party is in terminal decline.
There is little doubt that after being written off not so long ago by both politicians and pundits, the recent Congress comeback in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh has given India’s oldest party a golden opportunity in this round of assembly polls to decisively prove that those who had written their political obituary were too hasty and wrong. In three states — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — where the Congress is engaged in a direct contest with the BJP, it can exploit the squabbles within the latter’s state units which are heavily dependent on Prime Minister Narendra Modi getting them votes.
As for the other two states going to the polls — Telangana and Mizoram — where the party faces regional opponents, it should be able to take advantage of growing dissatisfaction with the two-term Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) Chief Minister Chandrasekhar Rao and the anger among the tribal majority in Mizoram, in the wake of anti-Kuki tribal pogroms in neighbouring Manipur against the ruling Mizo National Front, for allying with the BJP.
What may help the Congress is the palpable shift from its earlier ‘High Command’ culture — a throwback to the days of the distant past when it was the predominant party in the country — to being more accommodative to regional party stalwarts and local political dynamics. It is this that helped the Congress to oust BJP governments both in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh this year. Having gained from the new strategy, the Congress leadership appears to have followed the same political mantra in ticket distribution and campaign tactics for the upcoming assembly polls.
There also seems to be far less confusion and disarray in the top leadership of the Congress that had five years ago squandered the windfall of ousting three BJP governments after sweeping assembly polls in Chhattisgarh and winning close contests in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. While the party’s brute majority in Chhattisgarh kept its government safe, it lost power in Madhya Pradesh where the BJP engineered the defection of Congress stalwart Jyotiraditya Scindia and for a long while seemed to collapse in Rajasthan as well because of infighting between the state Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and regional leader Sachin Pilot. Considering that both Scindia and Pilot were supposed to be close to the Gandhi ruling family, the dynasty and the party high command were largely responsible for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory, which it compounded by getting routed in the 2019 national elections, after failing to stitch up an effective pan-Indian Opposition alliance.
Both the Gandhis and the central party leadership appear to have learnt a bitter lesson from their past mistakes and the induction of the affable but politically astute old warhorse Mallikarjun Kharge as Congress president has made a big difference. Kharge, who is clearly more effective in dealing with both regional satraps of the Congress and other Opposition leaders, has managed to so far negotiate the political path to the current round of assembly polls without too many fumbles or stumbles. The fact that the Gandhi dynasty has given him the authority to do so is by itself a huge step forward for the Congress.
Yet, it remains to be seen whether the party can play to its strengths and hide its weaknesses in the last electoral lap as polls commence this month. From the trends available today from various states, the Congress has an edge over the BJP in both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, giving a spirited fight in Rajasthan and Telangana and is likely to be the largest party in Mizoram. Much would depend on whether the Congress holds, if not improves, its position in the coming weeks or loses momentum as the Modi juggernaut gathers speed and the BJP’s vastly superior resources of money and power come into play.
Despite the formidable election war machine of the BJP, the Congress knows that this is perhaps the last chance it will get to save itself from becoming a political fossil. There is a buzz around the Congress office in Delhi with ticket seekers and mid-level leaders and workers thronging an edifice that had gone quiet for some time. It would be interesting to see whether the leadership, both at the Centre and states, that are going to assembly polls this month can deliver on the hopes of recovery of the party.
Ironically, the real test for the Congress may come in case it does really well winning a majority, if not all, of the states going to the polls. Historically this has often led to arrogance in the top party leadership provoking delusions of a return to the old glory days of the Congress and a patronising attitude to potential allies in the rest of the Opposition. But if the new Congress and a chastened Gandhi family has the sagacity to act humbly and accommodate other parties from a position of growing political clout in the country, this could make the Congress not an obstacle but a spearhead of political change, restoring competitive democracy at a national level.
The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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