The return of the BJP-led NDA in the Assam Assembly polls held last year has left the Congress party in a state of uncertainty. And, this has ignited a factional war within the party. A section of party leaders are looking for greener pastures. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, mostly a West Bengal-based party, believes that the confusion within the grand old party is a boon for it.
Recently Ripun Bora, who himself lost the polls last year and had to resign from the post of Congress state president following the party’s defeat, joined the TMC and within a few days was made the president of the state unit. This comes after Sushmita Dev, a former national president of Congress’ women wing, joined the TMC last year after the defeat of the grand old party led alliance in the state. Later, TMC sent her to the Rajya Sabha from West Bengal and made her one of the observers of the party affairs in the Northeast region.
TMC isn’t a new party in this northeastern state and has made small gains in the past. In the 2001 Assam Assembly polls, the party was able to open its account in the Muslim-dominated Badarpur seat of the Barak Valley. Later the party won a bypoll from the Mariani seat of Upper Assam in 2004. In the 2011 state Assembly polls, the party again managed to open its account from the Hajo seat of the Lower Assam region. In fact, the party contested 103 seats that year and came second in two seats — Karimganj South of Barak Valley and Mariani.
Being a Bengali-dominated party, the TMC believes that it can gain the support of the significant Bengali — both Hindus and Muslims — population of the state. But it isn’t as easy as the TMC believes. The Bengali Hindus have moved towards the BJP while the Bengali Muslims are divided between the Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the latter in the last 3-4 years has lost a section of its support to the grand old party.
One of the easiest ways to build a party is to poach leaders from other parties — and the TMC is just doing that. The Congress has weakened considerably but it still has a vote base across the state. To attract this crucial base, the TMC has been presenting itself as the real Congress as it had done successfully in West Bengal. The party is trying to poach as many Congress leaders from the state as possible. However, there are limitations to poaching — and getting a foothold in a state like Assam where both ethnic and religious divisions play a crucial role isn’t a cakewalk.
Mamata Banerjee’s controversial anti-NRC statements in 2018 had resulted in the resignation of party leaders, including then state president Dwipen Pathak, who was party’s lone winner in 2011 state elections. Ripun’s induction and subsequent elevation to the post of president indicates the party’s renewed attempts to bridge the gap with the Assamese community.
The two parties swearing on Assamese regionalism — the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) led by Lurinjyoti Gogoi and the Raijor Dal of Sibsagar MLA Akhil Gogoi — are also trying to occupy the space of Opposition. Last year, Raijor Dal emerged as the second largest party in the Thowra seat bypoll securing 27 per cent votes and pushing the Congress to the third place. In the Mariani seat bypoll, Raijor Dal got 17.03 per cent votes — just 0.22 percentage point less than the Congress. The recent bypolls in these seats in Upper Assam — won by the Congress in last year’s Assembly polls — were won by the BJP with big margins. Apart from them, the Aam Aadmi Party, after its Punjab success, has renewed its activities in the state. In the Guwahati Municipal Corporation Elections this month, the AAP won a seat with a vote share of 10 per cent — 3 per cent less than the Congress, which drew a blank. Although AJP secured a meagre 3 per cent votes, it also managed to open its account. Notably, the winning candidates of both the AAP and the AJP are Muslims.
The TMC is partially right that the credibility of the Congress in Assam has declined considerably despite a strong base in Lower Assam and other Muslim-dominated areas. At the same time, the TMC has to keep in mind that its own report card on credibility in the state, as of now, isn’t good. True that this time TMC is planning to present itself as Assam’s own party learning from its past mistakes, but for the party the road to gain the Opposition space remains a herculean task.
Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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