Delhi's Covid Deaths Surge Even as Cases Fall & Experts Warn Fatalities May Rise Further. Here's Why

Delhi reported 45 Covid-related deaths on Saturday, the highest since June 5 last year, though the positivity rate is decreasing in the national capital. The trend in the national capital matches with what experts have been warning that the peak of cases in the third wave will be followed by the peak of fatalities.

According to medical experts, though the Covid cases in Delhi has come down after registering a record surge a week ago, the daily fatalities trend needs to be watched for the next few days to tell if the death count has reached its peak. However, the situation in the third wave will remain much better than the second wave, experts added.

Delhi on Saturday recorded 11,486 new Covid-19 cases with a positivity rate of 16.36 per cent. It saw a record surge in daily cases recently with over 28,000 cases registered in a day on January 13, and the positivity rate too had gone beyond 30 percent on January 14.

Delhi saw 45 deaths on Saturday while it recorded 43 deaths on Thursday, highest since June last year. Experts added that this is a general epidemiological trend and death count peak is generally seen 7-14 days after the peak in daily cases as patients’ condition deteriorate later after testing positive.

Doctors say that Delhi is expected to see rise in deaths as fatalities occur a week or more after testing positive. “Very few hospital admissions are being seen in this wave, compared to the previous ones. But any patient who has got admitted after testing positive, generally dies after his or her condition deteriorates in the next one week or so, and hence, death tally will peak later than the cases tally,” a senior doctor at the Delhi government-run Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences (ILBS) said.

According to a report in Hindustan Times, the Covid death toll in Delhi in the first 22 days in January stands at 479.

Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain on Friday asserted that the danger of Covid-19 has subsided in the national capital and the situation is “quite under control”.

But, Dr Suranjit Chatterjee, a senior consultant at Apollo Hospitals, said it will be early to say, if the death peak has crossed. He said that after that record surge a week ago, which is being seen as a peak, cases have come down.

“Even the number of calls I was getting for medical consultations from patients have come down a lot in the past few days, indicating situation is improving. However, more deaths are being reported now, as death cases peak a week or two later,” Chatterjee said.

He, however, argued that the number of tests has been reduced, as per new guidelines, and though the number of cases is on the wane, the trend needs to be watched. “We need to watch the daily fatalities trend, and see how the figures go, only then can any assessment be made on whether death case have peaked or we are past it,” Chatterjee said.

Meanwhile, a study by Max Healthcare hospitals on patients admitted during the ongoing third wave suggests that hospital occupancy and ICU bed requirement is much lower in comparison with the earlier waves.

There are 15,409 beds for Covid patients in Delhi hospitals and 2,504 (16.25 per cent) of them are currently occupied as of Saturday. A total of 2,504 Covid patients are in hospitals, the health department bulletin stated.

Active cases in Delhi on Saturday reduced to 58,593 from 61,954 on Friday. Also, in total 876 coronavirus patients were on oxygen support, out of whom 160 severe Covid patient were on ventilator, as on Saturday.

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