New Delhi: At least 28% of the total “carbon space” of 1000 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxideequivalent (GtCO2eq) left for the world between 2015-2100 would be cornered by China (168 GtCO2eq), the EU (50 GtCO2eq) and the US (70 GtCO2eq) before 2030 according to new analysis released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). In the absence of any globally agreed approach to allocate permissible emissions across countries, CEEW’s analysis is particularly important to understand how little global carbon space will remain for the rest of the world when the largest historical emitters continue emitting greenhouse gases.
CEEW’s analysis also reveals that despite the positive impact of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), the global emissions gap (comparing INDCs against a 20C pathway) is a mammoth 7-10.5 GtCO2eq in 2030, a big shortfall in global effort.
According to CEEW, in order to keep global temperature rise to under 2°C, global emissions will need to peak in 2030 (at 36 GtCO2eq), decline significantly by 2050 (to 24 GtCO2eq), and go into negative territory by 2075. Thus, negative emissions technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are likely to play a crucial role for climate change mitigation in the coming decades. Climate change adaptation also needs to be central to any climate deal likely to be signed in Paris later this week.
Dr ArunabhaGhosh, CEO, CEEW, said, “Countries need to start thinking right now about allocating carbon space based on principles of historical responsibility and economic capabilities. India, with its ambitious renewable energy goals, has already committed to higher mitigation than its fair share, in effect freeing up carbon space for other developing countries.”
Dr VaibhavChaturvedi, Research Fellow, CEEW, added, “Low income regions like Africa will become key to the post-2030 climate mitigation agenda. Even with continuous decline in prices of key mitigation technologies, market-based mechanisms (carbon trading) and technology transfer regimes will become critical.”
Prakash Javadekar, India’s Minister for Environment, Forests and Climate Change, has repeatedly noted that the developed world needs to vacate the carbon space to accommodate the development of nations such as India.
In Paris, 196 countries are currently negotiating a new pact to tackle climate change and keep global temperature rise in check, below 2°C by the end of the century.
Link to CEEW’s analysis
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