BPOs, IT companies smiling over new ECB Norms

New Delhi: In order to find a solution to the rising rupee crisis faced by the Indian industry, the government has decided to put restrictions on the external commercial borrowings, or ECBs.

The move would reduce the flow of dollars into the country. The new norms states that a company can raise up to USD 20 million dollars through the ECB route after getting RBI’s approval. But any ECB over USD 20 million can only be spent overseas. This move comes after India has seen unprecedented dollar inflows through ECBs. In the period from April-July, India has received ECBs to the tune of USD 9 billion.

The government currently is also worried that it may not meet its USD 160 billion export target - that's because the rising rupee has hit exports.

To counter this, Commerce Minister Kamal Nath had said on Tuesday that the government is thinking of another package of incentives for exporters. This is in addition to the Rs 1,400 crore package announced in July. But this new package will cater to the needs of sectors that were not included in the July package.

But, who will be significantly affected by the government’s current incentives to curb the impact of the rising rupee?

NEW ECB NORMS

Who’s to benefit?

Who will be negatively impacted?

• Negative for oil marketing cos
• Mfg sector with capex to be impacted
• Hardcore manufacturing sector
• Capital Goods manufacturers

The BPO/ITES companies are likely to benefit. Export oriented companies are also expected to benefit. Since most of the IT companies have hedged at Rs. 40.50 per dollar, they may not feel any immediate impact of the Government’s move.

On the other hand, Oil marketing companies will feel the brunt of the ECB norms, and will be hit negatively. The manufacturing sector with capex, will also be similarly impacted. This is because the Rupee depreciation may lead to companies booking losses.

Bala Swaminathan, Head, Corporate Banking, Standard Chartered Bank, said, “There is ample liquidity currently available in this system but every single flow is important. My own sense of what RBI has done, is robbing Peter to pay Paul. The over-obsession with foreign exchange rates and therefore, to protect one sector of the economy which is technology companies and the BPO, will now mean that a whole other sector of the economy, which is the hardcore manufacturing sector, might end up paying higher interest cost."

He points out another ECB stipulation that he feels, is a serious issue.

"They have also stipulated is money must be used to import equipment from overseas. So capital expenditure necessarily must happen overseas. That has got to have an effect on capital goods manufacturers in the country as well. So there are larger ramifications of this ECB secular beyond just interest cos,” he added.

A lot of Sensex companies will be positively impacted by the new ECB norms. The positively impacted Sensex companies account for 67 per cent of the weightage. There are tech, pharma and banking companies; some of them that are impacted like Reliance etc. So we have seen a huge rally around the Nifty and Sensex on the back of the the ECB norms.

Reliance has a weightage of about 13 per cent, backed by Infosys, at about 9.3 per cent, ICICI Bank at around 9.5 per cent - all have been positively impacted.

Some other companies that have been negatively affected have been manufacturing and telecom companies; the weightage is around 10-15 per cent in the Sensex, in addition to Oil marketing companies. But in terms of percentage, their impact on the Sensex is not much.

With excerpts from moneycontrol.com